000 AGXX40 KNHC 071855 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS AT PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH FRI FOR WIND WITH THE ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON. THE EC WAVE/NWPS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE GUIDANCE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY DROPPED THE LOW PRES SYSTEM ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF AS IT TREKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT AND FRI. THE EC CONTINUES TO TREND WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM...HAVING CARRIED 30 KT WINDS WITH THE LOW ON THE RUN FROM YESTERDAY. THE MORE CONSISTENT AND WEAK GFS IS PREFERRED. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND WHEN A SURGE OF COOLER NW WINDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF. THE MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE CONVERGING WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR PUSH...WITH THE PREVIOUSLY STRONG UKMET TRENDING WEAKER AND THE WEAKER GFS TRENDING STRONGER. THE 12Z ECMWF LOOKS LIKE A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. IT WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS...AND ITS WAVE MODELS WAS USED TO ADJUST SEAS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE EC/EC WAVE USED MON AND MON NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLC AND LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE NW CARIBBEAN...WITH A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. THE 1514Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OFF THE N CENTRAL COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS IS 5 KT HIGHER THAN THE 12Z GFS AND 10 KT HIGHER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE TO THE N SHOULD BE ERODED BY THE LOW PRES IN THE SW N ATLC TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THE CHANCE OF A STRONG BREEZE UNTIL EARLY SUN...ASIDE FROM DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING THE NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM. THE STRONGEST MODEL IS THE GFS...AND IT WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST HERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY SUN. THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST/WEAKEST OF THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS WHILE THE UKMET IS THE FASTEST/STRONGEST. THE ECMWF IS THE COMPROMISE SOLUTION. IT WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH FRI WITH THE ECMWF ADDED OVER THE WEEKEND AND MON. EC WAVE/NWPS FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AN ASCAT-B PASS FROM 1510Z SHOWED WINDS TO 55 KT APPROXIMATELY 60 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SW QUADRANT. THIS IS 10 KT LOWER THAN THE 12Z GFS AND 15 KT LOWER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS...ONLY THE 12Z GFS SHOWED A STORM WARNING WITH THE LOW...PLACING IT WELL NE OF THE LOW CENTER N OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. THE ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CLOSER TO THE CENTER. MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST TO REFLECT THE ASCAT PASS AND THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS WHICH HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS 990 MB WITH 40 KT OF WIND THROUGH 18Z. THE GFS IS 4 MB HIGHER AND THE ECMWF IS 6 MB HIGHER AT 18Z. THE STRONGER GFS SEEMS MORE REASONABLE THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH THE SURROUNDING WIND FIELD EVEN AFTER THE LOW EXITS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE NWPS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE WAVE GRIDS...WITH SOME MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR HIGHER SEAS IN THE AREAS OF STRONGEST WINDS. THE MWW3 WAS LOW WITH THE EXTENT OF THE SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE ACCORDING TO THE ALTIMETER AND BUOY OBS. THE EC WAVE AND NWPS LOOKED MORE REASONABLE. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE FORECAST FOR THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY SUN...WITH THE 12Z GFS...12Z UKMET AND 12Z ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...PLACING IT FROM 31N77W TO COCOA BEACH FLORIDA AT 12Z SUN AND FROM 31N68W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS 12Z MON. THE ECMWF IS THE COMPROMISE SOLUTION FOR THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...AS EXPLAINED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION. IT WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH MON NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... STORM WARNING TODAY. GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.