000 AGXX40 KNHC 070748 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 248 AM EST THU JAN 7 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM CAROLINAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF. ASCAT DATA SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 27N FROM THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA TO LOUISIANA. A LOW PRES TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 98W IN EASTERN TEXAS. SE RETURN FLOW IS INCREASING IN THE WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA FRI. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS LATE FRI NIGHT AND MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE BASIN TO EXTEND FROM MISSISSIPPI TO TAMPICO MEXICO SAT AND FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FAST MOVING FRONT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR GALE OR GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE VERACRUZ COAST SAT NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE BASIN... EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF 20 KT WINDS DEPICTED IN LATEST ASCAT DATA NEAR THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA...AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE GENERAL RULE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH FREQUENT PULSES TO 20-25 KT AND SEAS TO 6-7 FT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE FRI NIGHT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER SE RETURN FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COMPLEX SUBTROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED NE OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR 27N75.5W AND A TROUGH WITH WARM FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS EXTENDING E-NE OF THE LOW TO 30N71W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY NE OF THE LOW CENTER. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0152 UTC SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS N AND NW OF THE LOW... AFFECTING MARINE ZONE AMZ113. EXPECT THE LOW CENTER TO DEEPEN FURTHER TODAY AS IT TRACKS NE TOWARD BERMUDA. LONG TERM THE LOW WILL SHIFT SE WITH GALE FORCE WINDS INTO HIGH SEAS WATERS N OF 30N E OF 65W. THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG N WINDS AND LARGE SWELL IN FAR NE WATERS SUN THROUGH MON. ELSEWHERE...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL REACH NE FLORIDA SAT NIGHT AND SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20- 30 KT SAT AND SAT NIGHT IN NW WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECOMING W-NW 10-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N79W TO 27N80W SUN...FROM 31N72W TO BAHAMAS SUN NIGHT AND FROM 31N68W TO 23N76W MON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TODAY. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.