000 AGXX40 KNHC 061921 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 221 PM EST WED JAN 6 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR WIND AND THE EC WAVE/NWPS FOR WAVE GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LOW CONFIDENCE. AN ASCAT-B PASS FROM 1618Z SHOWED A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE MOVING W INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR WELL INITIALIZED. THEY DIVERGE AS THE WINDS INCREASE IN THE NW GULF EARLY TOMORROW...WITH THE ECMWF STRONGER THAN THE GFS FORECAST AS A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE AND FORCES STRONGER SURFACE TROUGHING. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT THE ECMWF HAS CONSISTENTLY CARRIED A LOW PRES SYSTEM AROUND 26N ALONG THE TROUGH WITH 25-30 KT WINDS AROUND IT AS IT CROSSED THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS SCENARIO. THE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL BE EMBEDDED IN VERY FAST ZONAL FLOW THAT SHOULD INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRES SYSTEM. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS USED WITH THIS TROUGH...KEEPING THE WINDS BELOW A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE HERE. CONFIDENCE WANES FURTHER BY EARLY SAT WHEN A SURGE OF COOLER NW WINDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF. THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE MAP...WITH THE GFS THE SLOWEST TO INTENSIFY THE WINDS OVER THE NW GULF AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE N CENTRAL/NE GULF WHILE THE UKMET IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE ECMWF LOOKS LIKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS HERE AND CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER UKMET TIMING AND THE SLOWER GFS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE GULF SAT AND SAT NIGHT AND BY CARRYING STRONGER WINDS IN THE NE GULF SUN THAN THE GFS BUT WEAKER THAN THE UKMET. THE BLEND WITH THE OFFICIAL GRIDS LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE 1440Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC. HIGH PRES CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLC AND LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE NW CARIBBEAN...WITH A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA MAINLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A DYING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 1014 MB LOW PRES OVER N CENTRAL CUBA TO CENTRAL HONDURAS SHOULD BE GONE TONIGHT. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN. THE 12Z GFS BARELY ALLOWS IT TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN WHILE THE UKMET CARRIES THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO CENTRAL HONDURAS BY SUN NIGHT WITH A FRESH TO STRONG N BREEZE BEHIND IT. THE ECMWF IS THE MIDDLE-OF- THE-ROAD SOLUTION. IT WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS OVER THE WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH FRI WITH THE ECMWF ADDED OVER THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE COMPLEX PATTERN IN THE SW N ATLC. BOTH MODELS CARRY A STRONGER LEAD SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO NEAR 31N70W THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE WIND FIELD NEAR THE LOW AND WAS THE FIRST TO HOP ON THIS SCENARIO. THE GFS ALSO CARRIES GALES BETWEEN THE TRAILING LOW OVER THE N COAST OF CUBA ALONG 80W AND ANDROS ISLAND AT 18Z. THE 1552Z ASCAT-B PASS CONFIRMED GALES IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS BASED ON THIS PASS TO SHOW A GALE HERE WITH THE LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD ANDROS ISLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERALL...THE GFS WAS BLENDED HEAVILY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM....INCLUDING FRI NIGHT ONWARD AS THE LOW...THEN NE OF THE AREA...SHIFTS BACK TO THE SE AND SENDS GALE FORCE WINDS INTO WATERS N OF 30N JUST E OF 65W. ELSEWHERE...THE STRONGER GFS APPEARS TO BE BETTER INITIALIZED OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA WHERE NE WINDS TO 30 KT LIE BETWEEN THE COAST AND A TROUGH FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO NEAR 31N80W. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT W...WITH WINDS REMAINING ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO LOW IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION FRI NIGHT AS IT CARRIES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SE U.S. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS PREFERRED FOR ADJUSTING THE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW WATERS SUN. SEE THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION FOR DETAILS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.