000 AGXX40 KNHC 060720 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 AM EST WED JAN 6 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR DELMARVA SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. ASCAT PASS AT 0127 UTC SHOWED AN AREA OF 30 KT WINDS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 100 NM W OF FORT MYERS. THIS IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED...AND WIND GRIDS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP 2-3 KT IN THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT 6-9 HRS AS A RESULT. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY COMES INTO PLAY BY WED NIGHT. THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONG LOW EMERGING OFF THE TX COAST THAT MOVES DUE EAST AND WEAKENS...WHILE THE GFS DEPICTS A TROUGH MOVING OFF TEXAS THAT INTENSIFIES TO A MODERATE LOW IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF S OF LOUISIANA...THEN WEAKENS INTO A TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO N FLA LATE FRI. EXPECT REALITY WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. A MODERATE TROUGH THAT DEEPENS ONLY SLIGHTLY NEAR 90W AND OPENS UP AFTERWARD APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS. GFS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. ECMWF DOES NOT BRING A FRONT INTO THE GULF. UKMET SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT. SO WILL GO WITH THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN DIVERGENT MODEL FORECASTS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS 10-20 KT WINDS ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EVIDENT BEHIND RAPIDLY WEAKENING COLD FRONT S OF CUBA. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLC AND LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH SAT. BY LATE SAT...GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON BUILDING MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOW CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SHEAR LINE CHARACTERISTICS EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 26N65W TO A WEAK LOW OVER CENTRAL CUBA CENTERED NEAR 22N79W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS N OF THE BOUNDARY E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND STRONG 30 KT NE WINDS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THIS SCENARIO IS FAVORABLE FOR UNUSUALLY HIGH SEAS TO 10-12 FT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...NOT HANDLED WELL BY WAVE MODELS. WILL BUMP SEAS UP BY ABOUT 2 FT IN THIS AREA THROUGH THU. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A LOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW TOWARD BERMUDA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT SLIDES NE ROUGHLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING OVER FORECAST WATERS N AND NE OF THE LOW. GFS APPEARS TO BE BEST SOLUTION HERE BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. FCST LOW POSITIONS ARE: 26N76W 1012 MB 00Z TONIGHT...28N75W 1008 MB WITH TROUGH TO 31N69W 12Z THU...AND 30N71W 1004 MB WITH TROUGH TO 34N65W 00Z THU NIGHT. THIS CARRIES GALE WARNINGS OVER FORECAST WATERS PRIMARILY N OF THE TROUGH FROM 00Z-18Z THU. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE PREFERRED FOR ADJUSTING THE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.