000 AGXX40 KNHC 050737 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 237 AM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LOW CONFIDENCE. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEPICTED IN LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA EXPECTED TO VEER MORE EASTERLY TODAY THROUGH WED AS STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE U.S. SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINLY IN THE FCST BEYOND WED NIGHT...AS GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE WIDELY DIVERGENT IN THE GULF REGION. GFS PRIMARY AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICT A TROUGH SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI WHILE THE EUROPEAN DEVELOPS A LOW IN WESTERN WATERS NEAR 96W WED NIGHT THEN DEEPENS IT INTO A 25-30 KT SYSTEM BY THU NIGHT THAT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA FRI NIGHT. THE UKMET MODEL IS IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND INDICATES A DEEPER TROUGH THAN THE GFS BUT NOT A CLOSED LOW LIKE THE EC. FOLLOWED PREVIOUS REASONING AND WILL USE GFS GUIDANCE IN GRIDS FOR NOW UNTIL GREATER CONSENSUS BETWEEN GLOBAL MODEL AND THEIR ENSEMBLES EMERGES. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NORTHERN HONDURAS. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG N- NE WINDS W OF FRONT AND LIGHT WINDS SE OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE ASCAT DEPICTS LIGHT TO MODERATE E TRADES IN THE CARIBBEAN E OF 83W...AND MODERATE E-SE WINDS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC HAS WEAKENED AND SHIFTED FAR EASTWARD...AND AS A RESULT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAS RELAXED CONSIDERABLY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL FAVOR A TROUGH N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AND MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOW CONFIDENCE. THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE THIS WEEK... WITH A SERIES OF IMPULSES FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS THEN EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE DEPICTION OF THE IMPULSES IN THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE BLENDS IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE LARGE SCALE GENERAL PICTURE OF WHAT TO EXPECT THE SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THE DETAILS CONCERNING TIMING OF CYCLOGENESIS...SPEED AND DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT FOR THE LOWS IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST GRIDS IS FAIRLY LOW BEYOND WED. UNTIL THEN...THE MODELS ARE RELIABLE AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N65W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NW WATERS FROM 31N73W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CATCH UP AND MERGE WITH THE OTHER FRONT TONIGHT...WITH THE MERGED FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N59W TO 26N66W TO 23N80W. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS N OF THE FRONT THROUGH WED. EXPECT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO TRANSITION TO A SHEAR LINE ALONG 23N/24N TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED ALONG THE SHEAR ZONE TO AFFECT MOST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE SHEAR LINE IN THE BAHAMAS WED NIGHT...AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NE THU AND THU NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE LOW N OF 30N FRI OUT OF THE TROPICS AS A STRONG SYSTEM WITH GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE N SEMICIRCLE. SINCE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE LOCATION OF THE LOW...HAVE CAPPED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AT 30 KT AND FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN. IT DOES HOWEVER APPEAR GALE WINDS ARE MORE LIKELY...AS SREF PROBABILITIES ARE TRENDING HIGHER WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.