000 AGXX40 KNHC 040801 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 301 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL MOVE S OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE 10-11 FT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO WEAKENS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN VEER GRADUALLY AND BECOMING EASTERLY TUE THROUGH WED AS STRONG HIGH PRES SHIFTS EASTWARD N OF THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EMERGING OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS EARLY THU WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLC AND LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI...WITH HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL BISECT THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO HONDURAS MON...THEN WEAKEN FROM EASTERN CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS TUE...AND DISSIPATE WED. EXPECT FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS W OF FRONT THROUGH TUE...BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN SE PORTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM WED THROUGH FRI. MORE ON THAT LATER. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W THROUGH A WEAK LOW N OF THE BAHAMAS CENTERED NEAR 29N77W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SECONDARY POOL OF REINFORCING COLD AIR IS POISED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW WATERS TONIGHT. THE LOW N OF THE BAHAMAS WILL LIFT THE FRONT NORTHWARD TODAY NOT AS A WARM FRONT BUT MORE LIKELY A KINK ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY UNTIL THE STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR DRIVES THE RENEWED COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND TUE... BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY WITH SHEAR LINE CHARACTERISTICS ALONG 23N/24N WED FROM E OF TURKS AND CAICOS TO EASTERN CUBA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS N OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. BY WED NIGHT...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT HAVE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND LIFT NE AND DEEPEN THROUGH THU NIGHT. WHILE THE GFS QUICKLY MOVES IT FURTHER NE INTO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW EASTWARD S OF 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W THU THROUGH SAT. WILL USE GFS AS PRIMARY GUIDANCE FOR NOW...BUT LONG TERM CONFIDENCE IS LOW. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.