000 AGXX40 KNHC 031817 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 117 PM EST SUN JAN 3 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO 22N92W THEN SOUTHWARD TO 19N93W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A PRES RIDGE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO GENERATE STRONG TO NEAR GALE N-NW WINDS GENERALLY OCCURRING S OF 26N W OF 88W AND THE FRONT. SEAS REMAIN RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FT WITH BUOY 42055 REPORTING 12.5 FT AS OF 03/1650 UTC. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MAXIMUM WINDS WILL DECREASE INTO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS BY TONIGHT WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO 8 FT ACROSS THE SW GULF BY SUNRISE MON. A REINFORCING HIGH PRES MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SE TO THE MID-ATLC WILL STRENGTHEN RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND BEGIN MOVING THE FRONT E-SE TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY E OF THE BASIN BY MON AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION MON AND MON NIGHT RANGING FROM MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL STRONG...THEN VEERING GRADUALLY AND BECOMING EASTERLY TUE THROUGH WED AS STRONG HIGH PRES SHIFTS EASTWARD N OF THE AREA. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE BASIN THU WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH BOUNDARY EMERGING OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLC AND LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL INDUCE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS ACROSS S FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND NW BAHAMAS WHILE THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. A RE-ENERGIZED FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN NIGHT...EXTEND ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS MON...THEN WEAKEN FROM EASTERN CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS TUE...AND DISSIPATE WED. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION MON THROUGH THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N76W WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING E-NE TO 31N68W AND THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO NEAR BISCAYNE BAY AND THE SE FLORIDA COAST. EARLIER MORNING SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS SOUTH OF AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT BETWEEN 64W AND 70W AND MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE NW OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT CONTINUES DRIFTING SLOWLY E-SE...HOWEVER AS THE LOW MOVES NE AND WEAKENS...ANOTHER LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEARLY IN THE SAME LOCATION NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT. THE ANTICIPATED SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIFT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS A PSUEDO WARM FRONT AND PUSH THE WESTERN PORTION SOUTHWARD INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY MON. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA AND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL DRIVE THE FRONT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS MON AND TUE THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG 23N/24N WED EXTENDING FROM EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO EASTERN CUBA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS N OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. BY WED NIGHT...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND LIFT NE TO 30N67W BY THU NIGHT. WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THIS LOW FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND QUICKLY MOVES IT INTO A MID- LATITUDE TROUGH...THE LATEST ECMWF PINS THE LOW S OF 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.