000 AGXX40 KNHC 030730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO 22N94W THEN SOUTHWARD TO 18N94W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A PRES RIDGE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO HAS PRODUCED GALE FORCE WINDS W OF THE FRONT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. A SCATTEROMETER PASS WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF THE SW GULF AT 0310 UTC SHOWED TWO AREAS NEAR GALE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT... CENTERED NEAR 24N94.5W AND OFF THE VERACRUZ COAST CENTERED NEAR 20N95.7W. HIGHEST WINDS WERE 35 KT NEAR 19.5N96W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MAX WINDS WILL FALL BELOW GALE FORCE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MOST LIKELY BEFORE THE NEXT OFFSHORE AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ARE ISSUED. NONETHELESS...EXPECT VERY STRONG WINDS TO PERSIST W OF THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. REINFORCING HIGH PRES DROPPING S-SE FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND PROVIDE AN ADDED EASTWARD PUSH TO THE FRONT TODAY. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SE GULF TODAY WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR WHICH WILL DRIVE THE RE- ENERGIZED FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BASIN TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION MON AND MON NIGHT...VEERING GRADUALLY AND BECOMING EASTERLY TUE THROUGH WED AS STRONG HIGH PRES SHIFTS EASTWARD N OF THE AREA. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE NW CARIB WHERE AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL INDUCE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS ACROSS S FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND NW BAHAMAS WHILE THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. A RE-ENERGIZED FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN NIGHT...EXTEND ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS MON...THEN WEAKEN FROM EASTERN CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS TUE...AND DISSIPATE WED. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION MON THROUGH THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N66W TO S FLORIDA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS. THE CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIFT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS A PSUEDO WARM FRONT AND PUSH THE WESTERN PORTION SOUTHWARD INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY MON. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA AND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL DRIVE THE FRONT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS MON AND TUE THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG 23N/24N WED. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS N OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.