000 AGXX40 KNHC 021814 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 114 PM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR VENICE FLORIDA TO 23N94W... THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 18N93W. HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTHWARD WEST OF THE FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICO COAST GENERATING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THE EARLIER GALE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE VERACRUZ OFFSHORE WATERS HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...HOWEVER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN. BY SUN...REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING S-SE FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND PROVIDE AN ADDED EASTWARD PUSH TO THE FRONT SUN...ALLOWING IT REACH FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THEREAFTER... LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SE GULF AND REINFORCING COLD AIR WHICH WILL DRIVE THE RE-ENERGIZED FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BASIN BY SUN NIGHT LATE INTO EARLY MON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION MON AND MON NIGHT...VEERING GRADUALLY AND BECOMING EASTERLY TUE THROUGH WED AS STRONG HIGH PRES SHIFTS EASTWARD N OF THE AREA. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG E-NE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 01/1424 UTC SHOWED AN AREA OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS NEAR 12N75W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND NW BAHAMAS WHILE THE ATLC HIGH SHIFTS E. THE RESULTING COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN NIGHT...AND EXTEND ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS MON...THEN BEGIN WEAKENING FROM EASTERN CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS TUE...AND FINALLY DISSIPATE WED. MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION SUN THROUGH WED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO FORT PIERCE FLORIDA. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT AND GENTLE TO MODERATE S-SW WINDS S OF THE BOUNDARY. A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG SW FLOW WAS ALSO CAPTURED EARLIER N OF 30N E OF THE FRONT TO 60W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO 28N/29N THROUGH SUN...THEN AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS. THE CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIFT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND PUSH THE WESTERN PORTION SOUTHWARD INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA AND REINFORCING COLD AIR FROM THE NW WILL MOVE THE COLD FRONT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS MON AND TUE THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG 23N/24N WED. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS N OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.