000 AGXX40 KNHC 020748 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 248 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SARASOTA FLA TO 23N93W...THEN STATIONARY TO BAY OF CAMPECHE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD WEST OF THE FRONT IN MEXICO IS CREATING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF W OF 94W. GALE WARNING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE S OF 22N THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHIP REPORTED 40 KT N-NW WINDS AND 12 FT SEAS AT 0400 UTC NEAR 19N96W. THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. HIGH PRES RIDGING ACROSS THE N GULF WILL GIVE AN ADDED PUSH TO THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SUN... ALLOWING IT REACH FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THEN...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SE GULF AND REINFORCING COLD AIR WHICH WILL DRIVE THE RE-ENERGIZED FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUN NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION MON AND MON NIGHT...BECOMING EASTERLY TUE THROUGH WED AS STRONG HIGH PRES SHIFTS EASTWARD N OF THE AREA. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG E-NE WINDS IN THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0245 UTC SHOWED AN AREA OF 30 KT WINDS NEAR 12N74W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR S FLORIDA AND THE ATLC HIGH SHIFTS E. EXPECT A COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN NIGHT...EXTEND ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS MON...WEAKEN FROM EASTERN CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS TUE...THEN DISSIPATE WED. MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION SUN THROUGH WED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A SLOW-MOVING NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N74W TO VERO BEACH FLA. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SHIP OBS SHOW MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS N OF THE FRONT AND LIGHT W-SW WINDS S OF THE BOUNDARY. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUN...THEN AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...WHICH WILL LIFT THE EASTERN PORTION SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND PUSH THE WESTERN PORTION SOUTHWARD INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA AND REINFORCING COLD AIR WILL DRIVE THE RE-ENERGIZED COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS MON AND TUE THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG 23N/24N WED. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS N OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.