000 AGXX40 KNHC 010725 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 225 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/NWPS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO 25N94W THEN SOUTHWARD TO 18N95W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AT 0310 UTC SHOWED STRONG NE WINDS N OF THE FRONT TO THE TEXAS COAST AND STRONG N-NW WINDS W OF THE FRONT TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT. WINDS W OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF WATERS...WITH GALES SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SW GULF SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION SUN. BUILDING HIGH PRES WILL PUSH THE FRONT SE OF THE AREA MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SCATTEROMETER DATA AT 0210 UTC SHOWED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 10N75W REMAINS THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX SUFFICIENTLY LATER TODAY TO ALLOW WINDS TO DROP BELOW GALE BY THIS EVENING...THEN DIMINISH EVEN FURTHER SAT AND SUN. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 7-8 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY SUN. BROAD TROUGHING EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG 29N TO 30N PREVAILS OVER NORTHERN WATERS. SCATTEROMETER DATA THIS MORNING SHOWS LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS N OF 24N AND MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS S OF 24N...WITH HIGHEST WINDS N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NW WATERS LATER THIS MORNING. NORTHERN PART OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT E ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH SUN WHILE THE SOUTHERN PART DRAGS SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM N OF THE BAHAMAS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT SUN NIGHT...THEN LIFT N OF THE AREA MON WITH ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHING FURTHER SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA BY EARLY TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SAT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.