000 AGXX40 KNHC 301756 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1256 PM EST WED DEC 30 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/NWPS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF W OF THE FRONT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS 4-5 FT OVER THE SE GULF...AND 2-4 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN SE OF THE AREA MONDAY. EACH MODEL IS ALSO DEPICTING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS W OF THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUE TO PREVAIL N OF THE AREA KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OVER THE WEEKEND. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...4-6 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE IT STARTS TO RETREAT EASTWARD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RETREATING RIDGE WILL ENABLE A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS FRIDAY. THE DIFFERENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN THIS WEEKEND WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DEPICT A SURFACE TROUGH AND EVENTUAL LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND EVENTUAL TIMING AND LOCATION OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING. THE GFS REMAINS QUICKER IN DEVELOPING THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER THE NW BAHAMAS. THIS IS ALSO THE STRONGER MODEL. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SURFACE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND FINALLY A SURFACE LOW ON TUESDAY NE OF THE BAHAMAS. THE UKMET KEEPS A SURFACE TROUGH WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING. HAVE CONTINUED TO BLEND THE GFS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO TEMPER THE STRONGER SOLUTION. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO FRI. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.