000 AGXX40 KNHC 270710 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/NWPS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. OBSERVATIONS SHOW NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN TEXAS. THIS AIR MASS WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY OFFSHORE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S...VERTICAL MIXING IS LIKELY TO ENHANCE THE WIND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS CARRIES GALES OVER THE NW GULF FROM 21Z TODAY UNTIL 15Z MON. THE UKMET CARRIED GALES HERE FROM 06N MON UNTIL AFTER 12Z MON. THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS BUT HAS A SOLID AREA OF 30 KT WINDS. THE STRONGER SOLUTION FROM THE GFS SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO PREVAIL GIVEN THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE. THE LATEST SREF DOES NOT SHOW A CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NW GULF...AND WAITS UNTIL 09Z MON TO SHOW A 10 PERCENT CHANCE JUST N OF TAMPICO BEFORE HIGHLIGHTING THE SW GULF 12Z MON UNTIL 00Z TUE. THE GFS CARRIES GALES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR MASS IN THE WESTERN GULF UNTIL 18Z MON WHEN IT QUICKLY DIMINISHES THE WIND. THE ECMWF AGREE WITH THE GFS WHILE THE UKMET IS WEAKER. AGAIN...THE STRONG SOLUTIONS SEEM MORE LIKELY. CAN IMAGINE GALES PERSISTING SLIGHTLY LONGER IN THE SW GULF WHERE TOPOGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT N AS A WARM FRONT TUE...WITH A WEAK PUSH OF COOLER AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE THE FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD AGAIN WED AND THU. THE MODELS VARY ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT ARE GENERALLY IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. THE GFS SOLUTION SEEMS AS GOOD AS ANY THIS LATE IN THE FORECAST. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH AND A STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUPPORTS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND WINDS AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE GFS SHOWS GALE WARNINGS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNRISE MON AND RETURNING ON TUE EVENING. THE USUALLY STRONGER GFS IS GENERALLY RELIABLE IN SUCH PATTERNS. THE BRIEF LULL IN THE GALE WARNING WILL BE ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE EASTWARD SHIFTING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH TUE AS THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO PROGRESSES EASTWARD. BY TUE EVENING...THE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SW N ATLC AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...FORCING THE FRONT IN THE GULF NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BEFORE IT HAS A CHANCE TO REACH THE CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY MON WHEN THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA AND SHOVES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AWAY FROM THE REGION...LESSENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GFS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADJUSTING THE GRIDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER BERMUDA AT 32N64W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO THE FL/GA LINE. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD MON AND TUE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH MON BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH S-SE WINDS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND IN THE ATLC APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE PRIMARILY IN THE EVENING HOURS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE ATLC SHIFTS E. THE GFS FORECAST APPEARS REASONABLE OVERALL. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FAR NW WATERS THU EVENING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO MON. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO MON. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. .AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.