000 AGXX40 KNHC 261900 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF 12 UTC GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND 12 UTC MWW3/TAFB NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING FRESH SE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF. THE 1506 UTC ASCAT PASS DEPICTED A SWATH OF FRESH SE WINDS IN THE EASTERN GULF S OF 27N BETWEEN 83W-86W. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE S OF 27N INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND 3-5 FT N OF 27N EXCEPT 2-3 FT NE OF LINE FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE MIDDLE KEYS. THE NWP MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONSISTENCY WITH TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY SUN AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INDUCED BY A A RATHER DEEP UPPER LOW THAT WILL SWING E ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS EARLY ON SUN...AND ENE OVER EASTERN TEXAS DURING SUN AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM THE SE LOUISIANA AREA SW TO VERACRUZ MEXICO BY EARLY ON MON...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NEAR 26N89W AND STATIONARY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY MON EVENING. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH AREAS OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN GULF SUN NIGHT INTO MON. CURRENTLY MAX WAVEHEIGHTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO REACH 12 FT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT TIMES. THE FRESH SLY FLOW PRESENTLY NOTED OVER THE MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF ZONES IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IN THE WESTERN GULF INTENSIFIES. QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF SLY 20-30 KT WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT N OF ABOUT 26N WITH SEAS 8-12 FT. SLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE E OF THE FRONT. WINDS E OF AND W OF THE FRONT TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT MON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4-7 FT E OF THE FRONT AND TO 7-10 FT BEHIND THE FRONT BY MON EVENING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N AS WARM FRONT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF TUE AND TUE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THAT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FAR NW GULF EARLY WED...REACH FROM NEAR SE LOUISIANA TO THE SW GULF BY WED NIGHT AND BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS IT REACHES FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO NEAR 25N91W AND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE THU. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SE OVER THE WESTERN GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT SUPPORTING FRESH N-NE WINDS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF 12 UTC GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND 12 UTC MWW3/TAFB NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED NE OF THE AREA IN THE WESTERN ATLC IN COMBINATION WITH THE TYPICAL LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA CONTINUES TO INDUCE A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS BRINGING STRONG TO NEAR GALE WARNING WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS ADVERTISED BY THE 1508-1510 UTC ASCAT PASS SO A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THAT PORTION OF THE SEA. MAX SEAS WITHIN THE GALE WARNING AREA ARE IN THE 12-18 FT RANGE. THE 12 UTC GFS SHOWS THE GALE WINDS DIMINISHING SUN AFTERNOON TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE STRONG HIGH IN THE WESTERN ATLC LOSES SOME OF ITS STRENGTH. THE GALE WINDS MAY BEGIN TO PULSE DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING TIMES OF WED AND THU PERIODS.TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE FRESH TO STRONG RANGE EXTENDING FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 64W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND CARIBBEAN APPROACHES TO WINDWARD PASSAGE. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 10-16 FT S OF 16N AND 8-10 FT N OF 18N. QUITE IMPRESSIVELY...SEAS OF 9-13 FT IN NE SWELL GENERATED BY THE ONGOING LONG-LIVED STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAVE SPILLED TO S OF 10N W OF 75W. THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO OVERALL CHANGE LITTLE IN COVERAGE THROUGH PERIOD. AFTER TODAY...THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE IN THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY MON WHEN THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT MAKES HEADWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE ATLANTIC HIGH BEGINS TO RETREAT EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING. FRESH NE-E TRADE WINDS IN THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE MON...BUT REMAIN IN THE FRESH RANGE JUST N OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF 12 UTC GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND 12 UTC MWW3/TAFB NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN A STRONG SPRING -LIKE HIGH PRES SYSTEM ANCHORED JUST S OF BERMUDA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W ACROSS THE SE U.S. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT EASTWARD MON AND TUE WHILE WEAKENING SOME AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH MON BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH S-SE WINDS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND IN THE ATLC APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE PRIMARILY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH SUN...THEN PULSE TO THE FRESH RANGE AFTERWARDS THROUGH THU. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SE U.S. TUE AND APPROACHES THE NW PART OF THE AREA WED INTO THU...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS SOLN IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS ONES. THE 12 UTC GFS AND GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE SPLN IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET...ECMWF AND NAVGEM MODELS THAT THE FRONT WILL THEN GET SHUNTED SE OVER THE FAR NW WATER THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS ESE BEHIND IT. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE MOSTLY 15 KT WITH WINDS OF 20 KT JUST ALONG OR N OF 31N ON THU WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE WARNING SUN NIGHT. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING SUN NIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING MON. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO SUN NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.