000 AGXX40 KNHC 251830 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/MWW3 GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH SAT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF SUN...REACH FROM NEW ORLEANS TO VERACRUZ MEXICO EARLY MON...THEN BEGIN TO STALL AND WEAKEN FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND TO BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE MON. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH AREAS OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN GULF SUN NIGHT INTO MON. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE MON AND TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON. ECMWF AND GFS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...HOWEVER ECMWF FAILS TO DEPICT GALES AS GFS DOES. WILL WEIGHT FCST MORE HEAVILY TOWARD GFS AT LEAST THROUGH MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3 GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NE OF THE AREA IN THE WESTERN ATLC AND A STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUPPORTS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...PRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS IN MUCH OF THE AREA...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS IN GULF OF VENEZUELA. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH MON. GALE WARNINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SEVERAL MORE DAYS N OF COLOMBIA. STRONGER GFS USUALLY MORE RELIABLE IN THIS PATTERN. IT SHOWS GALES CONTINUING TO PULSE OFF NE COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING...THEN REMAIN 25-30 KT THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH AN AREA OF 35 KT WINDS NEAR COLOMBIA DEPICTED EACH NIGHT. GFS MODEL ALSO SHOWS BRIEF PULSES OF 30-35 KT MINIMAL GALE WARNINGS IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA MAINLY IN THE EVENING BETWEEN 21Z-03Z THROUGH SUN NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3 GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED NEAR NEAR BERMUDA AT 32N63W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W-SW TO NE FLORIDA. THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH SUN. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD MON AND TUE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH MON BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH S-SE WINDS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. EXPECT STATIONARY FRONT TO REMAIN IN EXTREME NW WATERS NEAR 30N80W TUE THROUGH WED. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND ATLC APPROACHES TO WINDWARD PASSAGE PRIMARILY IN THE EVENING HOURS THROUGH SUN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS THE RIDGE IN THE ATLC SHIFTS E. THE GFS FORECAST APPEARS REASONABLE...BUT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MAY BE UNDERDONE A BIT AS GFS IS USUALLY TOO WEAK IN SIMILAR CONDITIONS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO SUN. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.