000 AGXX40 KNHC 250739 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 239 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOW CONFIDENCE. THE HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD LIES WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY SUN AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND UKMET AGREE ON A SLOWER SOLUTION MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE GULF THAN THE GFS...BUT THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN ITS 12Z RUN AND IS NOW MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FASTER SINCE THEIR 12Z RUNS. WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST SOLUTION OF THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS...WILL SIDE WITH ITS FORECAST FOR ADJUSTING THE GRIDS. THE ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH WITH THE NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUN AFTERNOON THAN THE GFS WHILE THE UKMET SHOWS GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY FLOW HERE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS HERE...AND COULD EASILY SEE MORE MIXING DOWN OF THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERLY MID- LEVEL JET THAN WHAT THE GFS IS DEPICTING. WILL BUMP WINDS UP HERE...BUT STAY SHY OF GALES. THE GFS CARRIES GALE FORCE WINDS IN ZONE GMZ017 FROM 00Z MON THROUGH 12Z MON AND INTO ZONE GMZ023 AT 12Z MON BEFORE DIMINISHING THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE UKMET CARRIES WIDESPREAD GALES BEHIND THE FRONT IN ZONES GMZ011...GMZ013...GMZ017 AND GMZ023 AT 06Z MON AND KEEPS THE GALE GOING IN ZONE GMZ011 AT 12Z BEFORE DIMINISHING THE WIND. THE ECMWF NEVER GETS WINDS TO GALE FORCE...BUT AGREES MORE WITH THE ECMWF PATTERN FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS. WILL USE THE GFS TO ADJUST GRIDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND FOR THE GALE FORCE WINDS AREA...BUT THE NEW FORECAST WILL CARRY STRONGER WINDS...TO 30 KT...IN THE AREAS FAVORED BY THE UKMET/ECMWF MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3 GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NE OF THE AREA IN THE WESTERN ATLC AND A STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUPPORTS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...PRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE WARNING WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND NEAR GALE WARNING TO GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH MON. GALE WARNINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEVERAL MORE DAYS N OF COLOMBIA. THE USUALLY STRONGER GFS IS GENERALLY RELIABLE IN SUCH PATTERNS. IT SHOWS GALES CONTINUING TO PULSE OFF NE COLOMBIA THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN REMAIN 25-30 KT THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT BECOMES LESS INTENSE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. GFS MODEL ALSO SHOWS BRIEF PULSES OF 30-35 KT MINIMAL GALE WARNINGS IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA MAINLY IN THE EVENING BETWEEN 21Z-03Z THROUGH SUN NIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY MON WHEN THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA AND SHOVES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AWAY FROM THE REGION...LESSENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GFS IS RUNNING SLIGHTLY WEAK HERE COMPARED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BUMPED UP TO BETTER FIT THE OBSERVATIONS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3 GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED NEAR NEAR BERMUDA AT 33N62W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W-SW THROUGH 31N72W TO THE FL/GA LINE. THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH SUN. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD MON AND TUE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH MON BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH S-SE WINDS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND IN THE ATLC APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE PRIMARILY IN THE EVENING HOURS THROUGH SUN EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE ATLC SHIFTS E. THE GFS FORECAST APPEARS REASONABLE OVERALL...BUT WINDS AND SEAS WERE INCREASED IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FOR THE PERIODS WHEN THE WINDS ARE DIRECTED FROM THE NE DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE PASSAGE AS THE GFS IS USUALLY TOO WEAK UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO SAT NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. .AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.