000 AGXX40 KNHC 241850 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 150 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3 GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 30N FROM HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 32N50W TO 29N91W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA ACROSS SE TEXAS TO NE MEXICO. MODERATE-FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. THE FRONT WILL LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND FRI. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF SUN NIGHT TO EXTEND FROM NEW ORLEANS TO VERACRUZ MEXICO MON AND FROM PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE MON NIGHT THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS INDICATED FROM MODEL FORECASTS WITH A DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER NE MEXICO SUN MORNING INDUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE S WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND GALE FORCE N-NW WINDS W OF THE FRONT SUN NIGHT AND MON. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MON NIGHT AND TUE AS THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3 GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NE OF THE AREA IN THE WESTERN ATLC AND A STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 09N75W SUPPORTS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...PRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH MON. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEVERAL MORE DAYS N OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN NIGHT...THEN REMAIN 25-30 KT THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT BECOMES LESS INTENSE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. GFS MODEL ALSO SHOWS BRIEF PULSES OF 33-35 KT MINIMAL GALES IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA MAINLY IN THE EVENING BETWEEN 21Z-03Z. HIS ROUGHLY COINCIDES WITH LOWEST WINDS N OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3 GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 31N ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 32N50W PREVAILS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH SUN. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD MON AND TUE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH MON BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH S-SE WINDS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SAT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.