000 AGXX40 KNHC 211825 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 125 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3 GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG 1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 35N61W EXTENDS A RIDGE NE OF AREA INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ANTICYCLONIC SE TO S WIND FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT ACROSS TEXAS IS ENHANCING S WINDS IN THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 93W. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT LOSING ITS SUPPORT DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...CAUSING IT TO WEAKEN AND STALL BY THE TIME IT EVENTUALLY REACHES THE TEXAS COAST WED. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY THU...AND LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT FRI. SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LVL CONVERGENCE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE NW GULF INTO NE WATERS THROUGH TUE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES E-NE OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3 GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG 1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NE OF THE AREA NEAR 35N61W AND A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 09N76W IS CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...SUPPORTING STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. ALTIMETER DATA DURING THE PAST 8 HOURS INDICATED 14 FT SEAS NEAR 11.5N76W...AND ASCAT DATA AT 1430 UTC SHOWED 35 KT WINDS NEAR 12N75.5W AND A LARGE AREA OF 30 KT WINDS FROM 11N-14N. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO IT APPEARS LIKELY GALES WILL CONTINUE TO SEVERAL MORE DAYS N OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE CHRISTMAS WEEKEND. GFS MODEL ALSO SHOWS BRIEF PULSES OF 33-35 KT MINIMAL GALES IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA MAINLY IN THE EVENING BETWEEN 21Z-03Z. THIS ROUGHLY COINCIDES WITH LOWEST WINDS N OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3 GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 27N65W TO E OF BAHAMAS NEAR 26N74W. STRONG 1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N-NE OF AREA IN THE W ATLC NEAR 35N61W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STRONG EASTERLY WINDS S OF THE HIGH CENTER...WHICH SUPPORTS SEAS TO 9-10 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS...INDICATED BY ALTIMETER DATA AROUND 1100 UTC. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FIRST HIGH SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH WED...THEN A SECOND HIGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED NEAR 32N60W ON THU...AND REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY AND MAINTAINING A SLP AROUND 1031 MB THROUGH SAT. SINCE THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT FRESH-STRONG TRADE WINDS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE CHRISTMAS WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED. GALE CONDITIONS WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.