000 AGXX40 KNHC 181750 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 150 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3 GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF 9-10 FT SEAS ACROSS THE W GULF BEHIND THE FRONT...ABOUT 1-2 FT HIGHER THAN FORECAST FROM THE WAVE MODEL. GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW GULF S OF 21N W OF 94W ARE EXPECTED A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT...THEN EXIT THE SE GULF SAT MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE N OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SUN...WITH HIGHEST WINDS THIS WEEKEND N OF CUBA IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ANTICYCLONIC RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF SUN AND AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY TUE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST LATE TUE OR EARLY WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3 GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CONTINUING IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY SAT THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE BETWEEN WESTERN CUBA AND BELIZE THROUGH SUN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING N OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS OVER FORECAST WATERS THROUGH TUE. EXPECT LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 70W-80W THIS WEEKEND. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT THE AREA OF 30 KT WINDS INDICATED BY THE MODEL WILL EXTEND WELL NORTH OF THE COAST AND HAVE LESS DIURNAL VARIABILITY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT LARGE AREA OF 10-15 FT SEAS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH WED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3 GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS MOVING INTO NW WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. A RIDGE ALONG 28N IS SHIFTING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE VEERING SW NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN MOVE E OF THE AREA SUN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUE...AND INDUCE STRONG NE WINDS NW OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND...BECOMING EASTERLY MON. 7-10 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION E OF THE BAHAMAS SAT THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA PRODUCES LARGER WIND WAVES. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.