000
AGXX40 KNHC 180611
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
111 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.
 
...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3 GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FCST.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH
SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS W OF THE FRONT WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS E OF THE FRONT. SEAS ARE IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS W OF THE FRONT...4-6 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS W
OF THE FRONT...AND 2-3 FT E OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT E...REACHING THE SE GULF TODAY AND E OF THE AREA SAT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS MORNING OVER THE SW WATERS
BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND PREVAIL THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
SE RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN WATERS SUN AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WATERS BY TUE.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W... 

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3 GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FCST.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...
AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...FRESH TRADES OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADES OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...AND MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-10 FT
RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...4-6 FT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...
3-5 FT OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...AND 5-7 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS. A STALLING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS
SATURDAY WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE BY SUN. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST WATERS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING NEAR GALE WINDS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS BY SUN NIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS
REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE SUN NIGHT AND MON NIGHT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3 GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FCST.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE FORECAST WATERS. LATEST
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN
DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS WITH MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS.
SEAS ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE OVER THE NW AND SOUTHERN WATERS...4-5
FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS E OF THE
BAHAMAS...AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT
EASTWARD TODAY ENABLING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS.
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND E OF THE AREA
BY SUN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND PREVAIL THROUGH TUE. 

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     GALE WARNING TODAY.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.