000 AGXX40 KNHC 161102 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 306 AM EST WED DEC 16 2015 CORRECTED SW N ATLC MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF 00 UTC GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00 UTC MWW3/TAFB NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STRICTLY USING ONLY NWPS FOR PERIODS OF THU THROUGH FRI. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NE GULF SW TO 28N76W AND NW TO 28N92W WILL LIFT N OF THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE MAINLY SE WINDS THROUGHOUT. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE SE OF A LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO. THE GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE GULF. MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING THIS NEXT FRONT TO BE STRONGER THAN THE RECENT AS IT MOVES TO JUST OFF THE TEXAS COAST AROUND 12 UTC THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO THIS EVENING...FROM NEAR MOBILE BAY TO VERACRUZ NEAR 12 UTC THU...FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA TO 25N90W TO 19N94W EARLY THU EVENING...FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO NW YUCATAN PENINSULA AROUND 12 UTC FRI...AND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NW CUBA TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY FRI EVENING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SE OF THE GULF...AND ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN DURING FRI NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH THE RESULTING PRES GRADIENT FORECAST TO INDUCE MODERATE TO STRONG NLY WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH NW-N WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE OVER A PORTION OF THE SW GULF BEGINNING LATE THU AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS COLD DENSE AIR MIXES DOWN OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. SEAS IN THE EXPECTED GALE AREA ARE FORECAST TO BUILD UP TO AROUND 13 FT ON FRI. SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 8-12 FT OVER THE S CENTRAL AND SW GULF THU THROUGH FRI...THEN SUBSIDE TO 6-9 FT EARLY SAT WITH HIGHEST SEAS OF 8-10 FT CONFINED TO THE EASTERN GULF PORTION S OF 25N E OF 88W AT THAT TIME. THE MAX OF 10 FT IS FORECAST BY THE NWPS GUIDANCE TO BE JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON SAT SLOWLY DIMINISHING TO 8-9 FT ON SUN. THE HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD JUST INLAND OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA SAT WITH PRES OF 1030-1032 MB...AND NE TO THE CAROLINAS BY SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DECREASE IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF WHILE TURNING ANTICYCLONIC...WHILE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS PERSIST IN THE SE GULF...INCLUDING VICINITY YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON SAT. WITH THE HIGH PRES OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SUN...THESE WINDS VEER TO NE-E AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF 00 UTC GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00 UTC MWW3/TAFB NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT E OF AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR 74W CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SOLID AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS NOTED IN THE LIGHTNING DENSITY DISPLAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS CONFINED FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 71W-74W...AND IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. A 1016 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED N OF THE AREA IN THE ATLC NEAR 28N62W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND 1008 MB LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA IS INDUCING FRESH TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND RESULTANT 5-7 FT SEAS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY MODERATE E-SE FLOW PREVAILS ALONG WITH 3-5 FT SEAS...EXCEPT S OF 10N WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY. RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE FORECAST AFTERWARDS AS STRONG HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS SE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC TONIGHT INTO THU WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRES GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...A STRONG COLD FRONT AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI...SLIPPING SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FRI AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WHICH WILL QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO UP TO AROUND 11 FT NEAR THE CHANNEL LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NW HONDURAS SAT MORNING...FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER SAT EVENING...AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM NEAR N CENTRAL HAITI TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER BY SUN EVENING. THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD IN ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WHILE VEERING TO NE-E BY SUN AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE RELATIVELY TIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA BY SUN. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU INCREASING TO FRESH THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS...BEFORE DIMINISHING BACK TO MAINLY MODERATE BY SUN. A MAJOR LONG PERIOD NE SWELL EVENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THESE WATERS BEGINNING THU NIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH 8-11 FT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...CORRECTED MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF 00 UTC GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00 UTC MWW3/TAFB NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK HIGH PRES CENTER OF 1018 MB IS ANALYZED NEAR 25N58W AT 06 UTC. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA. MAINLY MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR MODERATE SW WINDS N OF 30N E OF 77W WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS TIGHTER. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE...EXCEPT 5-6 FT IN THE AREA OF MODERATE SW WINDS. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE SE AND BECOME ELONGATED NW TO SE THROUGH THU WHILE THE WEAK FRONT WILL MAINLY STALL N OF 30N...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION WHICH WILL CLIP THE WATERS N OF 27N E OF 70W WED. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE FLOW WILL PREVAIL BY THU MORNING...INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE NW PORTION THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THAT NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION AROUND 12 UTC FRI. IT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM NEAR 31N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND NW CUBA BY EARLY FRI EVENING...FROM NEAR 29N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SAT EVENING...AND FROM NEAR 24N65W TO THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA SUN EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG SLY WINDS ILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS N OF ABOUT 28N AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS BEHIND IT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE NW PORTION BY SUN MORNING AS HIGH PRES BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE NE-E SUN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT EXPECTED NE AND E OF THE BAHAMAS. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST HAZARDOUS IN AND NEAR THE GULF STREAM AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS COUNTER FLOW OF CURRENT TO THE NE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN SEAS THERE OF 8-9 FT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING THU INTO THU NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.