000 AGXX40 KNHC 141856 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 156 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF LATEST GLOBAL RUNS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED BLEND OF MWW3/NWPS/ECWAVE OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE SW GULF THU INTO THU NIGHT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY FL TO 25N90W TO 20N96W. THE FRONT HAS BEEN WEAKENING THIS MORNING...AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS EXCEEDING 20 KT BOTH E AND W OF THE FRONT. CURRENTLY MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SE WINDS ARE E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N...WITH MAINLY MODERATE N WINDS WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS NOW POSITIONED OVER THE NW GULF. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE BIG BEND OF FL TO NEAR 24N90W THIS EVENING...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION BECOMES STATIONARY. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE EVENING WITH JUST A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NE GULF BY THAT TIME. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE TX COAST WED AM AND WILL REACH FROM S LOUISIANA TO VERA CRUZ BY THU AM. THE HIGH PRES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN THAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT FRONTAL SYSTEM...WHICH WILL ALLOW TO THIS NEW COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE SE THROUGH THE DAY THU TO CENTRAL FL...THE YUCATAN BY THU NIGHT...AND SE OF THE GULF BY FRI AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONGER HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT...FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY AND OCCUR WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES NW OF THE COLD FRONT THRU FRI NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT THERE REMAINS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE THAT GALE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE SW GULF OFFSHORE VERA CRUZ LATE THU. AFTER THE FRONT EXITS THE GULF BASIN LATE FRI...THE STRONG HIGH...WHICH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE S US...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE SE GULF THROUGH SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF LATEST GLOBAL RUNS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED BLEND OF MWW3/NWPS/ECWAVE OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN UPPER LOW BETWEEN JAMAICA AND E CUBA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW OVER THE OPEN CARIBBEAN WATERS A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SW OF JAMAICA. 1021 MB SFC HIGH PRES NEAR 32N65W IS DRIFTING SE. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA HAS WEAKENED THROUGH THE MORNING WHICH HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO DECREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE AND WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW SIMILAR TRADE WINDS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THRU WED NIGHT. ON THU...STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND WILL SUPPORT A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG BY THU NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 9 FT THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS A RESULT OF THE STRONGER TRADES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ON THU AND IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON FRI. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED N OF THE COLD FRONT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF LATEST GLOBAL RUNS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED BLEND OF MWW3/NWPS/ECWAVE OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 1021 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 32N65W AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE NE GULF IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT N OF 29N W OF 76W. AS BOTH THE HIGH AND FRONT WEAKEN...THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN BELOW 20 KT. THE CURRENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE SE US AND NE GULF TO JUST OFFSHORE THE NE FL/GA ATLC COAST TUE AM...BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THIS AREA DURING THE DAY TUE. THE FRONT WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT AND LIFT N OF THE AREA ON WED. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA ON THU WITH FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS DEVELOPING N OF THE BAHAMAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS WILL SPREAD E A FEW HUNDRED NM E OF THE FRONT AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE ATLC OFFSHORE NE FL/GA FRI AM. HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG N TO NW WINDS WITH THE FRONT REACHING 30N74W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY EVENING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.