000 AGXX40 KNHC 140758 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 258 AM EST MON DEC 14 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF 00Z GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED BLEND OF MWW3/NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE SW GULF THU NIGHT INTIO FRI. THE COLD FRONT HAS REACH A POSITION FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SW TO 25N92W AND TO A WEAK 1007 MB LOW IN THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE. EARLIER SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS DIMINISHED...AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK TSTMS ARE SEEN MAINLY OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE N CENTRAL GULF. THE LARGE SWATH OF STRONG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED AS WAS INDICATED BY THE 0328 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW MAX SEAS OF 10 FT IN THE NW GULF NEAR 26N94W. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT E OF 84W...AND 3-5 FT S OF 22W W OF 92W. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION TO THE CENTRAL GULF ON TUE. NWP MODELS ARE IN CONSENSUS IN DEPICTING A STRONG COLD FRONT...WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND IT...THAT WILL MOVE INTO NW GULF LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...REACH FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO VERACRUZ WED NIGHT...FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THU...AND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON FRI. THE INITIAL SURGE OF NLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER WEAK ...HOWEVER STRONG HIGH PRES WILL THEN BEGIN TO PRESS SEWD ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AND TO THE WESTERN GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT STARTING WED NIGHT. THIS WILL INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF ABOUT 21N THU NIGHT...WHILE FRESH TO STRONG NLY WINDS WITH BUILDING SEAS FOLLOW ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF 00Z GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED BLEND OF MWW3/NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN TIP OVER CUBA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER WINDWARD PASSAGE...WATERS BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA...AND WATERS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 80W-81.5W. HIGH PRES OF 1022 MB CENTERED ABOUT 230 NM W OF BERMUDA IN COMBINATION WITH A 1007 MB LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA SUPPORTS A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS INDUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH WED MORNING...THEN MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH FRI WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS LIKELY WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED NM OF THIS FEATURE. THE SFC HIGH OVER THE ATLC WILL SLIDE SE AND WEAKEN ALSO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN THE TRADES DIMINISHING IN SPEEDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. NE TO E TRADES AGAIN INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BEGINNING WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHT GRADIENT RESULTING FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 9 OR 10 FT BY FRI WITH THE TRADES. TRADES INCREASE SOME OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8 FT THERE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF 00Z GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED BLEND OF MWW3/NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS THE PREVIOUS DAYS HAS MOVED INLAND FLORIDA. A LINGERING TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND ATLC HIGH PRES CENTERED JUST N OF THE BASIN IS KEEPING AN AREA OF FRESH E TO SE WINDS E OF CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NEAR 77W WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT. THE 0148 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED SOME OF THESE WINDS. THESE FRESH E TO SE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT N OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATLC HIGH PRES SLIDES ESE AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SEEN AS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES THE FAR NW PORTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE NE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS TONIGHT...THEN STALL LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE BEFORE LIFTING BACK N AS WARM FRONT WED AND WED NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE OVER THE NW WATERS THU IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES THOSE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO INCREASE OVER THE REST OF THE NORTHERN WATERS FRI AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY REACHES FROM NEAR 31N72W TO S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FRI NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.