000 AGXX40 KNHC 131928 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 228 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF 12Z GFS AND ECMWF WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED WEIGHTED MWW3/ECWAVE BLEND WITH NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS. COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NW GULF NOW EXTENDS FROM TX/LA BORDER TO BROWNSVILLE...TX. 1248 UTC WINDSAT IMAGERY INDICATES FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE W GULF W OF 90W...EXCEPT THE EXTREME SW GULF. WINDS BECOME FRESH AND N AS THE FRONT PASSES. SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREAS OF HIGHEST WINDS WITH SWELL TO 8 FT PROPAGATING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NW GULF OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER WINDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH 30N86W TO 25N90W TO 18N95W BY SUNRISE MONDAY. AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE W GULF TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BOTH BEHIND AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN RESULTING IN A GRADUAL RELAXING OF THE WIND FIELD TO MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SEAS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT TONIGHT...RANGING FROM 5 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE NW GULF...AND LOWER ELSEWHERE BY SUNRISE MON. CONVECTION CURRENTLY WITH THE FRONT WILL ALSO LESSEN IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE FRONTAL FORCING WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FROM SW TO NE AS IT REACHES FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE FL PANHANDLE MON INTO MON NIGHT...DISSIPATING MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WHILE IT REMAINS STATIONARY AND DISSIPATES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER THE NW GULF FROM TX ON WED. THIS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE A STRONGER SFC HIGH BEHIND IT COMPARED TO THE CURRENT FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN BOTH A FURTHER SE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...AND HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. CURRENT MODELS RUNS SUGGEST FRESH N WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT ON WED. AS THE SFC HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT STRENGTHENS AND MOVES SE TOWARD THE GULF ON THU AND FRI...N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE...BECOMING FRESH ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF WITH STRONG WINDS OVER THE SW GULF. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF THE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF REACHING GALE FORCE AT SOME POINT THU PM INTO FRI AM. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF 12Z GFS AND ECMWF WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED WEIGHTED MWW3/ECWAVE BLEND WITH NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LOW NEAR 22N75W CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER WINDWARD PASSAGE...HAITI...JAMAICA...AND SURROUNDING WATERS. SFC HIGH PRES OF 1024 MB CENTERED BETWEEN SE US AND BERMUDA AND 1007 MB SFC LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA SUPPORTS A PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER AND DRIFT SLOWLY SW TO E CUBA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS LIKELY WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED NM OF THIS FEATURE. THE SFC HIGH OVER THE ATLC WILL SLIDE SE AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER TRADE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY MON NIGHT. GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST TUE AM THRU THU AM...BEFORE THE ATLC SFC RIDGE BUILDS BACK TO THE W. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE THU THRU FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF 12Z GFS AND ECMWF WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED WEIGHTED MWW3/ECWAVE BLEND WITH NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N75W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N76W TO 23N79W. THESE FEATURES SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC TROUGH AND HIGH PRES BETWEEN THE SE US AND BERMUDA IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG E TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS TO 28N W OF 70W. SEAS TO 9 FT ARE POSSIBLE E OF THE N BAHAMAS TO 70W AS WELL AS N OF THE BAHAMAS TO 28N FROM NEAR THE FL COAST TO 70W THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 24N65W TO 25N72W SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE NW AND N TONIGHT AND WILL REACH THE NW CORNER OF OUR AREA NEAR THE FL/GA COAST LATE MON AM. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS WITH HIGHER SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TO THE NW THEN N AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER TO THE SW OVER E CUBA THROUGH TUE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLIDE E AND OUT OF THE W ATLC ZONES BY MON PM. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE NE FL AND E GA ON MON NIGHT AND WILL STALL OUT OVER THIS SAME AREA ON TUE. THE FRONT WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT TUE NIGHT...LIFTING N OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION BY WED AM. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE N FL AND GA COAST EARLY FRI. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS MAY OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.