000 AGXX40 KNHC 130758 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 258 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF 00Z GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLENDED 00Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS. A RATHER PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PRESENTLY...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH CENTER LOCATED BETWEEN THE SE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA SW TO ACROSS THE NE AND CENTRAL GULF...WHILE A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS KICKED UP QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE LARGE SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS MAINLY N OF ABOUT 22N AND W OF 90W AS CONFIRMED IN THE 0350 UTC ASCAT PASS...AND BY BUOY REPORTS FROM THOSE WATERS. THE SEAS THERE HAVE BUILD TO THE 7-9 FT RANGE. E OF 90W...SE WINDS ARE IN THE MODERATE RANGE EXCEPT THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE E WINDS IN THE STRONG RANGE ARE EVIDENT. SEAS E OF 90W ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE 7-9 FT SEAS IN THE NW PORTION WILL BUILD HIGHER...TO THE RANGE OF 8-12 FT TODAY...AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN HALF OF ZONE GMZ013 BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK NE TO ACROSS OKLAHOMA LATER THIS MORNING DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR WESTERN GULF AROUND 15Z MOST LIKELY PRECEDED BY A SQUALL LINE. THE FRONT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO VERACRUZ BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE THIS TAKES PLACE...THE HIGH OVER THE ATLC WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH ALLOWING FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS TO SIGNIFICANTLY SHRINK TO WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL GULF EARLY THIS EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS ARE FORECAST WITHIN 60 NM W FRONT...HOWEVER THE FRONT WILL LOSE ITS PUNCH MON AS ITS UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS TO THE NE. THIS WILL IMPLY A QUICK LESSENING OF THE WINDS TO THE MODERATE RANGE AS THE FRONT REACHES FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT REACHES FROM NE FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE CENTRAL GULF BEFORE STALLING AND LIFTING BACK N AS A WARM FRONT WED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS LIFTS BACK TO THE N. BEYOND TUE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINING A STRONGER COLD FRONT OVER THE NW GULF EARLY WED. THE FRONT WILL INITIALLY BE FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY MODERATE NLY WINDS INTO EARLY THU...THEN A BROAD AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD E IN ITS WAKE WITH THE ENSURING TIGHT PRES GRADIENT USHERING IN FRESH TO STRONG NLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF INTO THU NIGHT ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE FOR A PORTION OF THE SW GULF THU NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF 00Z GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLENDED 00Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MAIN FEATURE IS NOTED AS AN UPPER TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS SW TO 15N79W AND TO ACROSS PANAMA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE LOW IS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ITS APPROACHES AS WELL AS THE WATERS BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA AND OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI. THE SURFACE PRES GRADIENT DUE TO HIGH PRES CENTERED BETWEEN THE SE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA...AND A 1006 MB LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF MOSTLY FRESH NE TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN AS NOTED IN THE 0206 UTC ASCAT PASS. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE. A RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA RECENTLY REPORTED NE-E WINDS OF 28 KT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 10 FT. THIS SUGGESTS THAT A SMALL PATCH OF STRONG NE WINDS IS JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA. WILL DEPICT THIS IN THE NDFD GRIDS. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRESH TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WEAKEN TO 15-20 KT THROUGH EARLY WED WITH LINGERING SWELL PRODUCING SEAS OF 6-8 FT STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 5-7 FT. BEGINNING WED AFTERNOON...THE FRESH NE-E TRADES ARE FORECAST TO MATERIALIZE AGAIN AS ATLC RIDGING STRENGTHENS WHILE EXPANDING WESTWARD...AND ONCE AGAIN HELPS TO INDUCE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF 00Z GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLENDED 00Z MWW3 WITH TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A LARGE STATIONARY UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH THE SURFACE FEATURE OBSERVED AS A TROUGH FROM 26N75W TO JUST N OF EASTERN CUBA. A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH ANALYZED JUST N OF THE AREA AT 33N69W IS KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE PRESENT THROUGHOUT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ALONG 25N E OF 69W. ASCAT PASSES FROM 0206-0210 UTC REVEALED FRESH NE-E WINDS W OF THE BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND A SIMILAR PATCH OF WINDS E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N TO 28N DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 6-9 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS WITHIN THE AREA OF FRESH NE-E WINDS...AND IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE SEAS E OF THE BAHAMAS WERE ALSO CONFIRMED BY RECENT ALTIMETER DATA. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ONES. THE FRESH NE-E WINDS E OF THE BAHAMAS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NW AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DRIFTS NW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHWARD TO OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA COAST...AND THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST BY EARLY ON MON ALONG WITH THE SEAS IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE. THESE SEAS COULD POSSIBLY REACH 10 FT AT TIMES WITH PERSISTENCE IN FETCH AND DURATION OF THE WINDS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PART OF ZONE AMZ111 MON EVENING...THEN BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WATERS INTO TUE NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK N AS WARM FRONT WED AS WEAK CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING BUILDS TO THE NW ACROSS THE BASIN. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY A BRIEF OCCURRENCE OF S-SW 15 KT WINDS OVER ZONE AMZ111 MON NIGHT WITH SEAS OF 5-6 FT. THESE WINDS THEN BECOME GENERALLY VARIABLE 5-10 FT OVER ZONE AMZ11 TUE BEFORE BECOMING SE 10-15 KT LATE WED. ON THU...WINDS BECOME S-SW 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE NW PORTION IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SE U.S AND GULF OF MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD CONSENSUS WITH THIS SCENARIO TAKING PLACE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.