000 AGXX40 KNHC 111920 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL BLENDED WITH GFS THROUGH DAY 3...GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS EXTENDED. 1022 MB HIGH HAS SHIFTED OUT OF THE NE GULF OVER FLORIDA TO NEAR OCALA WITH WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ANTICYCLONIC LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL BUT W AND NW PORTIONS...WHERE OBS AND EDGES OF RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOW FRESH SE TO S WINDS. SEAS OVER MOST OF THE GULF CURRENTLY LESS THAN 3 FT...EXCEPT 4-5 FT NW PORTIONS AND INTO TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. AS FOR THE FORECAST...12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A BROAD AREA OF RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E INTO THE ATLC. FRESH TO STRONG SE-S WINDS ACROSS W HALF OF BASIN LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING SPREADS EAST LATE SAT AND SUN WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT SAT AND 8-10 FT SUN OVER THE NW THIRD OF THE GULF. ISOLATED AREAS OF 25-30 KT WINDS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT ON SUN OVER GMZ011-013. MODELS ALSO IN TIGHT AGREEMENT IN MOVING A COLD FRONT OFF TEXAS COAST BETWEEN 12Z-15Z SUN...EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO BY 00Z MON. THE MORE ROBUST GFS HAS BACKED OFF THE DEPICTION OF NARROW ZONES OF GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE OTHER GLOBALS MODELS DEPICT SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS...THUS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR WINDS BELOW NON-WARNING CRITERIA. FRONT RAPIDLY WEAKENS MON AS IT SLIDES SWD AND EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE MON. FRONT STALLS EARLY TUE THEN LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY THROUGH 27N87W TO 25N94W BY LATE TUE...AND ALONG THE GULF COAST BY LATE WED. A STRONGER COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE WED IS HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE NWP MODELS IN REGARDS TO TIMING. HOWEVER ALL AGREE THAT THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL GREATLY AMPLIFIES MID TO LATE-WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL BLENDED WITH GFS THROUGH DAY 3...GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS EXTENDED. SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIB CONTINUES TO DIG SWD WHICH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIB EXTENDING NWD ACROSS CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER HAITI WITHIN STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN OVERALL SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN NORMAL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE BASIN. NONETHELESS FRESH WINDS COVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE BASIN FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W...WITH AN AREA OF FUNNELED NE WINDS 20-25 KT BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY SE OVER THE WEEKEND...GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP CUT OFF LOW ACROSS E CUBA/SE BAHAMAS AND RETROGRADES THE UPPER LOW SW ACROSS CUBA/FAR NW CARIB WITH THE ASSOCIATED INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W FROM HISPANIOLA INTO THE SW N ATLC AND BAHAMAS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT FRONTAL REMNANTS WILL PERSIST ALONG 24-25N THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGE SHIFTING NE OUT OF GULF AND INTO W ATLC ALONG 31-32N AND TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIB FOR RETURN TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH- CENTRAL PORTIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE RIDGE SHIFTS SE LATE SUN INTO MON AND TRADES DIMINISH. MODELS IN DISARRAY ON LOCATION AND AMPLITUDE OF INVERTED TROUGHEXPECTED TO DEVELOP...WITH THE GFS/UKMET THE MOST ROBUST. THIS RESULTS IN FRESH NELY FLOW ACROSS THE NW CARIB AND LEE OF CUBA. THE ECMWF PRESENTS THE WEAKEST SOLUTION. A BLEND OF THE MODELS IS PRUDENT FOR NOW. PEAK WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FEATURE ACROSS THE NW CARIB WILL BE SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WITH WINDS TO AROUND 20 KT AND SEAS 5-7 FT EXPECTED. ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND SEAS TO 5-7 FT THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MON...WITH EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 5-6 FT SAT THROUGH SUN. MODERATE NLY SWELL GENERATE BEHIND CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO WATERS SUN-MON...RAISING SEAS N HALF TO 6-7 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL BLENDED WITH GFS THROUGH DAY 3...GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS EXTENDED. DEEP LAYERED LOW SWEEPING RAPIDLY NE WELL E OF BERMUDA DRAGS A COLD COLD FRONT SW INTO THE SE BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC. 1019 MB HIGH BEHIND FRONT NEAR 30N73W WILL SHIFT E AS LOW CONTINUES TO SWEEPS RAPIDLY EWD THROUGH SAT THEN BECOME PART OF RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NEARLY E-W ALONG 31/32N LATE SAT THEN GRADUALLY REALIGNING NW TO SE SUN. GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND ADVANCING INVERTED TROUGH/FRONTAL REMNANT ALLOWS STRONG PRES GRADIENT TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAHAMAS SAT AND SUN...WITH WINDS TO 30 KT EXPECTED IN ELONGATED BAND FROM ABOUT 68W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO EXTREME SE FLORIDA...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD 8-10 FT E OF BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO THEN LIFT NWD AND WEAKEN SUN AS RIDGE TO N REALIGNS. FRESH E TO SE WINDS MOVE NWD OVER AMZ111 INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE SUN WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SSW ON MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODELS DIFFER ON THIS FRONT WITH THE GFS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA. A COMPROMISE SOLUTION KEEPS THE A WEAK STALLED FRONT OVER AMZ111 WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER COBB. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.