000 AGXX40 KNHC 101857 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 157 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 25N88W INFLUENCES THE GULF BASIN PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT BASED ON RECENT BUOY DATA AND AN EARLIER ALTIMETER PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT NE THROUGH FRI IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF LATE FRI THROUGH SUN. UPDATED GRIDS INDICATE WINDS TO 15-20 KT W OF 94W BY FRI SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY COVERING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NW WATERS WITH 20-25 KT WINDS. AS A RESULT...SEAS WILL BUILD INTO A RANGE OF 6-8 FT GENERALLY WITH MAXIMUM SEAS TO 9 FT ACROSS THE NW GULF ZONE. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW PRES WILL MOVE THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO THE NW GULF EARLY SUN AND QUICKLY PROGRESS SE REACHING FROM MOBILE BAY TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO SUN EVENING... FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY MON AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SE GULF BY MON EVENING WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ON TUE. CURRENTLY...MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS OF 20-30 KT AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUN...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-11 FT IN THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. SEA HEIGHTS OF 8-9 FT ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH LATE SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC HIGH PRES NE OF AREA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES AND FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 6-8 FT WITHIN THE AREA OF STRONGEST TRADE WINDS...4-6 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 2-3 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND GENERALLY S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT. TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND SEAS TO 6-7 FT WILL INFLUENCE THE WATERS E AND NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 5-6 FT SAT THROUGH SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A LOW PRES IS ANALYZED IN THE VICINITY OF 29N70W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO CENTRAL CUBA AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING N-NE TO NEAR 31N62W. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVELY INFLUENCED WIND RETRIEVALS FROM RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES THIS MORNING...20 TO 30 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT GENERALLY N OF 25N BETWEEN 63W AND 69W. GIVEN THE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE...THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TRACKING IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA THIS EVENING. AT THAT TIME...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE MORE EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE SE WATERS LATE FRI WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BY SAT. HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRES. LINGERING ENERGY ON THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY TO A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE SAT WITH THE ASSOCIATED PRES GRADIENT GENERATING 20-30 KT E-NE WINDS FROM 23N-29N W OF 71W. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 8-10 FT WITH THIS PRES GRADIENT. AS THIS AREA LIFTS NORTHWARD LATE SUN INTO MON...GUIDANCE INDICATES THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE U.S. WILL ENTER THE FORECAST REGION ON MON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.