000 AGXX40 KNHC 100750 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 26N89W DOMINATES THE GULF REGION PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT BASED ON A PAIR OF ALTIMETER PASSES AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT NE THROUGH FRI IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN GULF FRI THROUGH SUN. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING WINDS TO 15-20 KT W OF 94W BY FRI. THEN...WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 94W BY FRI NIGHT...AND OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS W OF 90W BY SAT. THESE WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 7-9 FT. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW PRES WILL PUSH THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN GULF EARLY ON SUN. THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE ACROSS THE GULF REACHING FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO SUN EVENING...FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY SUN MORNING AND WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SE GULF BY MON EVENING WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ON TUE. CURRENTLY...MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS OF 25-30 KT AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUN...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9-11 FT IN THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS OF 8-9 FT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC HIGH PRES NE OF AREA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS AND FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 6-8 FT WITHIN THE AREA OF THE STRONGEST TRADE WINDS...4-6 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 2-3 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH PERSISTS. HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT. TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND SEAS TO 6-7 FT WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS E AND NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SIGHTLY SUBSIDE TO 5-6 FT SAT THROUGH SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A LOW PRES HAS DEVELOPED E OF THE BAHAMAS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AT 06OO UTC...THE LOW PRES OF 1012 MB IS ANALYZED NEAR 27N74W WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO NEAR 23N78W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRES TO THE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS ON THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CROSSING NEAR BERMUDA THIS EVENING. AT THAT TIME...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER NE AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE SE WATERS BY FRI EVENING WHILE DISSIPATING BY SAT. THEN...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRES. UNDER THIS WEATHER PATTERN...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG SLY WINDS OVER PARTS OF FORECAST ZONES 115 AND 121 TODAY AS THE LOW ACCELERATES TO NE OF THE FORECAST WATERS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6-8 FT WITH THESE WINDS...BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER JUST E OF THE FORECAST WATERS. BY SAT...A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND A RIDGE DOMINATING THE N WATERS. COMPUTER MODEL ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS OF THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH...PARTICULARLY S OF 28N... ACROSS THE THE NW AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY SAT EVENING. AT THAT TIME...EXPECT NE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AND SEAS OF 8-10 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS. AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS WESTWARD...EXPECT FRESH EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA...INCLUDING ALSO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND VICINITY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. THEN...MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE NW WATERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THE NEW COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FORECAST REGION LATER ON MON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.