000 AGXX40 KNHC 091946 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 246 PM EST WED DEC 9 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS PRODUCING VARIABLE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS BASIN WIDE. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE...EXCEPT IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE SEAS REACH 4 FT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY WHILE A LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE LOW THEN MOVES OVER THE NW BAHAMAS THU. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS ANCHORED BY A HIGH IN THE CENTRAL BASIN THAT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NE EARLY FRI. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF BY SUN AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT WEST OF 90W WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE NW GULF SUN MORNING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SW ALONG THE NW CUBA COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 18N86W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO GUATEMALA COASTAL WATERS. ATLC HIGH PRES NE OF AREA SLIGHTLY WEAKENED THUS ACTING TO REDUCE THE GRADIENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN EARLY THU AS THE PRESSURE IN THE ATLC INCREASE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO START TO MOVE OVER SW N ATLC WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PULSE OVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT EARLY SAT. CURRENTLY AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATE SEAS UP TO 4 FT IN THE NW BASIN WHILE BUOY DATA SHOW 6 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE NW BASIN THROUGH EARLY THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE BASIN NEAR 30N61W THEN CONTINUES TO 29N66W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 29N71W AND THEN INTO A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS SW TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 28N78W. FROM THE LOW A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THEN INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A 1013 MB LOW IS NEAR 27N75W WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N65W TO THE LOW TO 23N79W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES TO ENHANCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS N OF 23N W OF 61W. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW PRES OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE NW BAHAMAS EARLY THU. THE LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NE DRAGGING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS SW ATLC WATERS THROUGH FRI. HIGH PRES WILL THEN DOMINATE THE REGION SAT AND SUN. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE GOING TO DEVELOP E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N BY LATE THU WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. HIGH PRES WILL THEN SETTLE IN ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH SUN NIGHT PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA...INCLUDING ALSO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND VICINITY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT...BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER RAMOS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.