000 AGXX40 KNHC 090741 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 241 AM EST WED DEC 9 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR SE WATERS AND EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE N OF 26N AND 3-5 FT S OF 26N...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS OF 5-7 FT IN THE FAR SE PART OF THE GULF NEAR THE NW COAST OF CUBA AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRI IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF FRI THROUGH SUN. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING WINDS TO 15-20 KT BY THU NIGHT. THEN...WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 94W BY FRI NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS W OF 90W BY SAT. THESE WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 6-8 FT. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW PRES WILL PUSH THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN GULF EARLY ON SUN. PRESENTLY...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT SUN WITH SEAS BUILDING TO THE RANGE OF 7-10 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SW ALONG THE NW COAST OF CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 20N86W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SE TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ATLC HIGH PRES N OF AREA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 6-9 FT THERE PER AN ALTIMETER PASS. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT...EXCEPT FOR 2-4 FT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 81W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 1013 MB LOW WILL DRIFT SE THROUGH EARLY WED WHILE WEAKENING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO FINALLY WEAKEN TO A TROUGH ON THU...WITH THE TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST FRI. THE TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEAS WILL WEAKEN THU AS AN ATLC COLD FRONT PASSES TO THE N OF THE BASIN. THE AERIAL EXTENT AND STRENGTH OF THE TRADES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRI NIGH INTO EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 8-10 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BY SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING. TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND SEAS TO 6-7 FT WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS E AND NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SIGHTLY SUBSIDE TO 5-6 FT SAT THROUGH SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE BASIN NEAR 31N66W THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE IT BECOMES A PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES TO ENHANCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS N OF 22N W OF 70W AND ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW PRES ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS BY WED. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NE DRAGGING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL FINALLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER PARTS OF FORECAST ZONES 115 AND 121 LATE WED INTO THU AS THE LOW ACCELERATES TO NE OF THE FORECAST WATERS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6-8 FT WITH THESE WINDS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THU AND FRI. HIGH PRES WILL THEN SETTLE IN ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH SUN NIGHT PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA...INCLUDING ALSO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND VICINITY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT...BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.