000 AGXX40 KNHC 080737 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 237 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. SHORT TERM FORECAST MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE SE WATERS AND EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO A 1013 MB LOW PRES NEAR 22N85W TO THE NE PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS N OF THE FRONT TO ABOUT 28N AND W OF 90W...WITH SEAS TO 10 FT BASED ON AN ALTIMETER PASS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NLY WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH SEA HEIGHTS OF 9-11 FT ACCORDING TO AN ALTIMETER PASS. BUOY 42055 LOCATED NEAR 22N94W IS REPORTING SEAS OF 8-9 FT. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY CONTINUE N OF THE FRONT TO ABOUT 26N BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER TODAY. CURRENTLY...HIGH PRES OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND A NEW HIGH PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS BY WED EVENING THEN MOVE TOWARD THE NE GULF BY THU EVENING. THE LOW PRES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NE LIKELY CROSSING SOUTH FLORIDA ON WED...REACHING A POSITION JUST EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL BY WED EVENING. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. AS HIGH PRES MOVES EASTWARD...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NW GULF BY THU...WITH INCREASING WINDS TO 15-20 KT BY THU NIGHT. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 94W BY FRI NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS W OF 90W BY SAT. THESE WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 8-9 FT ON SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES N OF AREA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA AND A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH TRADES OF 20-25 KT EXTENDING N TO THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE ATLC RIDGE N OF AREA IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E AND FURTHER WEAKEN. AS A RESULT... WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE BASIN BEGINNING TODAY. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MEANDER N OF YUCATAN CHANNEL ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO... WITH A 1013 MB LOW PRES NEAR 22N85W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO REMAINS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 85W. NLY WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE LOW PRES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NE LIKELY CROSSING SOUTH FLORIDA ON WED...REACHING A POSITION JUST EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL BY WED EVENING. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN BY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA TO NEAR THE COAST OF BELIZE WED AND THU. N-NE WINDS WILL PERSIST W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND SEAS TO 6-7 FT WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS E AND NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SIGHTLY SUBSIDE BY SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS AND EXTENDS FROM 31N71W TO THE NW BAHAMAS INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE EASTERN PART OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED N OF AREA. THE FRONT IS STILL GENERATING SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. A NEW COLD FRONT FOLLOWS THIS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 31N75W TO 25N80W. THESE FRONTS WILL MERGE PRETTY SOON. FRESH NLY WINDS AND SEAS TO 7 FT ARE NOTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE MERGED FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE N WATERS TODAY THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MERGED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THU. A COUPLE OF LOW PRES ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONE WILL BE JUST E OF CAPE CANAVERAL AS PREVIOUSLY NOTED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.