000 AGXX40 KNHC 071939 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 239 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS SE AND S CENTRAL GULF THIS MORNING. A S/W EMBEDDED IN WSW MID-UPPER FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS WRN STRAITS OF FLORIDA ATTM AND TRIGGERING ACTIVE CNVTN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH PORTION ACROSS ATLC MOVING N...AND REMAINDER MOVING S...FROM JUST S OF THE KEYS TO 21.5N90W THEN TURNING SSW INTO FAR ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. 15Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH GFS FORECASTING THIS FEATURE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN NE TO N 20-25 KT WINDS TO THE NW OF FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE BOUNDARY DRIFTS SE...HIGH PRES SHIFTS NE AND WEAKENS...AND WINDS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY RELAX OVERNIGHT. A 1508Z ALTIMETER PASS ACROSS SW PORTIONS SHOWED SEAS 8-11 FT TO ALMOST AT THE COAST NEAR COATZACOALCOS WHICH IS 2-3 FT ABOVE WW3 AND WILL HAVE TO ADJUST SHORT TERM SWH FORECAST AS THIS IS NOT DEPICTED BY NWPS EITHER. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING SMALL AREA OF 30 KT WINDS OFF OF VERACRUZ...AND OBS AT ISLA DE SACRIFICIO FINALLY INCREASING LATE THIS MORNING TO 28 KT AFTER NOCTURNAL INFLUENCE ENDED. UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH ARE SWEEPING EWD ACROSS THE ERN U.S. TODAY AND ACROSS THE NE GULF STATES ATTM...WITH NO CLOUDS OR WX ALONG THE COASTS. MODEST NE TO SW ALIGNED SFC RIDGE BEHIND THIS BENIGN FEATURE WILL MOVE E NEXT FEW DAYS AND NUDGE THE CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SE INTO THE STRAITS BY THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW CUBA TUE. AS FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS W ATLC AND MERGES WITH BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TUE-WED...FRONTAL REMNANTS ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL LIFT NNW IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER STRONG S/W MOVING ACROSS ERN GULF...AND REINVIGORATE IT ACROSS SE PORTIONS...WITH NE TO SW RIDGE SETTLING ACROSS THE BASIN AN NLY FLOW DEVELOPING JUST W OF BOUNDARY AND INTO YUCATAN COAST. RIDGE TO THEN SHIFT ENE AND FORCE A WEAKENING BOUNDARY SE AND ACROSS W CUBA AND INTO NW CARIB...AND ALLOWS FRESH RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS NW GULF STARTING THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS HIGH PRES CENTER ACROSS NW ATLC THIS MORNING MAINTAINING SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB FOR STRONG TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS...WITH 25-30 KT DEPICTED BY 15Z ASCAT PASSES OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA...AND FRESH TRADES 20-25 KT EXTENDING N TO COAST OF HISPANIOLA. HIGH IS SHIFTING EWD ATTM AND WILL WEAKEN PRES GRADIENT SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...AND THEN SIGNIFICANTLY TUE THROUGH REMAINDER OF WEEK AS TRANSIENT LOW MOVE ENE ACROSS W ATLC. MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MEANDER N OF YUCATAN CHANNEL ACROSS STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A SFC LOW HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED SE OF FRONT NEAR 22N 86W. NLY WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL DOWN THE CARIB COASTS AND INTO GULF OF HONDURAS...WHERE WW3 SEAS ARE LIKELY LOW 1-2 FT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE..FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER TODAY AND THEN MOVE SE TONIGHT AND REACH NW CUBA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL TUE...AND THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SE OF THERE WED AND THU. N TO NNE WINDS TO W OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL SPILL INTO YUCATAN CHANNEL WED NIGHT AND THU. TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND SEAS TO 7-9 FT WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS E AND NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY. THEN... MAINLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-7 FT IN NE SWELL WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ATTM AS S/W MOVES EWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH FRONT DRIFTING NWD ACROSS NW BAHAMAS AND TO THE NE...WHILE SHIFTING S ACROSS KEYS AND STRAITS. SFC LOW LOOKS TO HAVE DEVELOPED OFF GA COASTS WITH FRONTAL TROUGH TO ITS S MOVING SLOWLY E. SEAS WERE 8-10 FT IN BAND N OF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING. FRONT TO MEANDER AND GRADUALLY MERGE WITH SERIES OF WEAK BOUNDARIESTHAT WILL MOVE OFF SE U.S. COAST AND NE FLORIDA NEXT FEW DAYS AS SERIES OF S/W MOVE ACROSS THE GULF. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AT DAY 3 AND BEYOND WITH DEVELOPING LOWS SCRAPING OUR N WATERS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS TRAILING. HAVE TAKEN A MEAN POSITION OF ENSEMBLES. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.