000 AGXX40 KNHC 061906 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 206 PM EST SUN DEC 6 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AN ELY WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LLVL WIND SURGE MOVING INTO W CARIB TODAY ARE AIDING IN PUSHING TAIL END OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WWD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...NOW NEARLY N TO S ALONG ABOUT 89W. FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO LLVL VORT ALONG NW COAST OF YUCATAN NEAR 21.5N89.5W THEN SWD. ACTIVE DEEP CNVTN CONTINUES ALONG THE FRONT AS A S/W RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE SE GULF. STRONG NE SFC WINDS ACROSS E PORTIONS OF GULF OVERNIGHT BUILT SEAS WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE BY THIS MORNING...WITH 42003 REACHING 11 FT BRIEFLY AT 12Z AND HOLDING AT 10 FT ATTM. THAT IS ONLY 3-4 FT BELOW GLOBAL MODELS. RECENT 1520Z ASCAT PASS SUGGESTS BROAD FIELD OF STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS ERN GULF OVERNIGHT NIGHT NOW MORE OF A NARROW BAND...FROM 25N TO 27.5N...AND APPEARS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE BAND DEVELOPING THERE PER LATEST STLT IMAGERY...WHILE ANOTHER ZONE OF STRONG ENE WINDS IS PREVAILING THROUGH THE STRAITS. 12Z ECMWF JUST NOW COMING IN...BUT 12Z GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS AND SUGGESTS SW TAIL OF FRONT TO SHIFT WWD INTO E PART OF BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH MON...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE PRES GRADIENT NW OF FRONT AND INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS C CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS. MODELS ALSO FORECASTING NWLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KT OFF OF VERACRUZ THIS EVENING THROUGH MON AFTERNOON...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD LOCALLY TO 9 FT...AND 6-9 FT ELSEWHERE WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM NW OF FRONT. DRY FRONT ADVERTISED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IT DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW IN MODEL FIELDS BUT WILL DRAG ACROSS N PORTIONS OF GULF TONIGHT THROUGH MON WITH HIGH PRES BEHIND REINFORCING THE PRES GRADIENT ALONG FRONT THROUGH MON EVENING BEFORE HIGH SHIFT ENE AND GRADIENT RELAXES. THIS TO ALSO PUSH FRONTAL REMNANTS BACK TOWARDS THE SE AND ACROSS STRAITS AND YUCATAN PENINSULA MON EVENING AND INTO FAR NW CARIB MON NIGHT AND TUE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS ELY WAVE MOVING WWD INTO W CARIB TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED LLVL CONVERGENCE SEEN ALONG 82-83W AND MOVING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. ATLC RIDGE HAS WEAKENED IN PAST 24 HOURS BUT MAINTAINING SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB TO COMBINE WITH WAVE RELATED WIND SURGE TO PRODUCE GALES OVERNIGHT THROUGH NEAR NOON TIME TODAY ACROSS THE COLOMBIAN COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SEAS HAD BUILT 10-13 FT THIS MORNING. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE STRONG TRADES CENTRAL PORTIONS BETWEEN 70W AND 79W BUT MISSED THE MAX WIND AREA OFF OF COLOMBIA. THE ATLC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E AND FURTHER WEAKEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN MON THROUGH MID WEEK WITH NOCTURNAL MAX OFF OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT REACHING 30 KT WITH SEAS TO 12 FT...AND SUBSIDING FURTHER EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND SEAS 7 TO 9 FT DOMINATE THE WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY THROUGH MON....THEN REMAIN AROUND 15-20 KT TRADES AND SEAS 5-7 FT THOUGH THU AS ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS E AND REMAINS CENTERED E OF 50W. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS THE FRONT HAS LIFTED N OF THE AREA ACROSS NE PORTIONS EARLY TODAY AS A PAIR OF LOW DEVELOPED ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY BETWEEN 64W AND 75W...WITH THE EASTERN-MOST LOW CAPTURED BY 14Z ASCAT PASS AND ALONG OUR BORDER NEAR 31N64.5W. GALES OCCURRING N OF THE FRONT BETWEEN THESE TWO LOW ARE ASSUMED TO HAVE ENDED THIS MORNING... WITH RECENT ASCAT PASSES MISSING THAT AREA. FRONT EXTENDS FROM SECOND ELONGATED LOW NEAR 28.5N71.5W TO NEAR 24N80W...WITH STRONG NE WINDS PERSISTING ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS NW OF FRONT. 12Z SWH ANALYSIS INDICATING MODELS 2-3 FT LOW ACROSS THIS AREA WITH SEAS GENERALLY 9-13 FT NW OF FRONT. THE LOWS WILL SHIFT NE AND OUT OF AREA TONIGHT...WITH FRONT SINKING SLIGHTLY SE ACROSS WATERS NE OF BAHAMAS...AND MEANDERS THROUGH THE STRAITS. COASTAL TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH MON ACROSS N FL AND SE U.S. COASTAL WATERS AND THEN GET PICKED UP AND MERGED WITH NEXT DRY AND BENIGN FRONT TO MOVE OFF SE U.S. COAST MON EVENING AND NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE QUICKLY TONIGHT AND MON AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FRONT AS GRADIENT RELAXES NW OF CURRENT LINGERING FRONT. WEAK RIDGING TO THE E AND WEAK N TO S TROFFING W OF 70W TO THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR BELOW NORMAL WINDS AND SEAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.