000 AGXX40 KNHC 051923 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 223 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING ACROSS STRAITS OF FL AND NOW LOOKS TO BE DRIFTING W-SW AND INTO NE COAST OF YUCATAN AS A LLVL VORT RIDES WSW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A 1041 MB HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING EXTENDS RIDGE SW TO TEXAS AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MODEST PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT PASS THERE SHOWED NE WINDS NEAR 20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA ACCELERATING TO 20-25 KT W OF 84.5W...AND LIKELY BACKING N-NE ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS AND INTO YUCATAN PENINSULA. 42003 HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING 8-9 FT ALL DAY WITH DOWNWIND SEAS EXPECTED A BIT HIGHER TO AT LEAST 10 FT. NW TO N WINDS 20 KT STILL PREVAILING S OF 20N AND W OF 93W...AND BLASTING THROUGH ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS THE STRAITS THROUGH SUN MORNING...WHILE W PORTIONS DRIFTS WWD WITH SHIFTING LLVL VORT...AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH SUN...BEFORE ENTIRE BOUNDARY MOVES A DEGREE OR SO NW MON BEFORE NEXT DRY AND BENIGN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPS ACROSS THE N GULF SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH REINFORCING HIGH PRES PUSHING OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK IN POSITION ABOUT WHERE IT IS NOW BY TUE. STRONG NE WINDS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING MON...WHILE PRES GRADIENT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN SUN THROUGH SUN NIGHT ACROSS W AND SW PORTIONS WITH POTENTIAL FOR GALES ALONG THE VERACRUZ COASTAL AREA EARLY MON...WHERE SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD 7-10 FT. BOUNDARY SHOULD WASH OUT ACROSS THE STRAITS WED. AS WEAK HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK PRES GRADIENT PREVAIL. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM BUT BEGIN TO DIFFER WITH NEXT FRONT IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT BY TUE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUMPED OR MERGE WITH TROUGH ACROSS NW CARIB OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FRESH NLY FLOW TO SPILL DOWN THE E COAST OF YUCATAN AND BELIZE AND INTO INTERIOR GULF OF HONDURAS. RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOW WEAK INVERTED TROFFING PERSISTING N TO S ALONG ABOUT 85W WITH AN ENE WIND SURGE MOVING INTO NW PORTIONS AND INITIATING SCATTERED CNVTN...AND NUDGING THE FRONT W AND TOWARDS THE COASTS. THIS WEATHER EXPECTED TO SHIFT WWD AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN DURING NEXT 24-36 HRS. ELSEWHERE TO THE E...ATLC RIDGE STILL MAINTAINING SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS TO MAINTAIN STRONG TRADES WITH AREA OF SOLID 25 KT CAPTURED BY 15Z ASCAT PASS OFF OF COLOMBIA. WIND SENSOR ON 42058 IS OUT BUT SEAS THERE HAVE BEEN 6-7 FT ALL MORNING AND SUGGEST STRONGEST TRADES REMAIN S OF 14N. AN ELY WAVE LOOKS TO BE ALONG 74W ATTM WITH MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SHEARED CNVTN ACROSS N CENTRAL PORTIONS BEHIND WAVE AXIS. ASSOCIATED LLVL WIND SURGE EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH PRES GRADIENT TONIGHT TO EXPAND AREA OF STRONG TRADES AND PRODUCE GALES OFF OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN MORNING. ATLC RIDGE TO SHIFT E AND WEAKEN FURTHER ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH MON WITH NOCTURNAL MAX OFF OF COLOMBIA SUN NIGHT REACHING 30 KT AND 12 FT. WINDS AND SEAS TO THEN SUBSIDE AND REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NW AND NE OF THE BASIN FOR WEAK PRES GRADIENT. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS GULFMEX AND STALL ACROSS STRAITS TO HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON CARIB. FRESH ENE TRADES AND TRADEWIND SWELL IS MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA OF 7 TO 9 FT SEAS FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TO ABOUT 37-38W WITH THIS SWELL BLEEDING THROUGH THE CARIB PASSAGES. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN NIGHT...WITH WINDS AND SEAS THEN SUBSIDING THROUGH LATE MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS W AND NW PORTIONS. STLT IMAGERY SUGGESTS POTENTIAL SMALL TIGHT LOW PRES CENTER INVOF 29N73.5W WITH FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THERE ACROSS NW BAHAMAS TO STRAITS NEAR 24N81W. ROPE CLOUD SEEN IN VIS IMAGERY ATTM SINKING S OF 30N AND E OF 68W AND IDENTIFIES THE COLD FRONT MOVING S-SE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A 120-150 NM WIDE BAND OF STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS PERSISTS ACROSS THE N AND NW WATERS...ALONG AND N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND W OF 61-62W. SEAS WITHIN THIS BAND ARE RUNNING 9-12 FT WITH ALL MODELS UNDERFORECASTING THERE...AND 41010 NOW REPORTING 15 FT...WHILE COASTAL FL BUOYS RUNNING 8-10 FT. MODELS CONTINUE TO COME IN LINE IN THE SHORT TERM THEN DIVERGE BEYOND MON NIGHT WITH NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SHIFT N TONIGHT AND SUN AS LOW SHIFTS NE AND BROADENS...EXITING THE AREA SUN NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING BRIEF WINDOW FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON AS IT IS PICK UP BY S/W...WITH ECMWF MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THUS MORE NWD LIFT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF LOW...AND FARTHER PUSH TO THE S BEHIND LOW. HAVE TAKEN A CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND FOLLOWED ENSEMBLE MEANS BY TUE. GALES EXPECTED TO DIMINISH N OF FRONT TONIGHT 03-06Z WITH FRONT THEN SHIFTING MODESTLY SE BEHIND EXITING LOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WHILE W PORTIONS DRIFT BACK ALONG THE SE FLORIDA COAST. NEXT BENIGN FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THEN EMERGE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AND MERGE WITH THIS OLD BOUNDARY ON TUE...STALLING BY LATE TUE FROM NEAR BERMUDA ACROSS NW BAHAMAS AND THROUGH STRAITS. WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE QUICKLY ACROSS NW WATERS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON AND AHEAD OF THIS NEXT APPROACHING FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.