000 AGXX40 KNHC 040800 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EST FRI DEC 4 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A STALLED FRONT REACHES FROM SW FLORDIA TO NEAR THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. OBSERVATIONS FROM OFF VERACRUZ MEXICO INDICATED WINDS HAVE RECENTLY DROPPED JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. WINDS TO 30 KT WILL PERSIST OFF VERACRUZ THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY. CONVERSELY NE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL START TO INCREASE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE STRONG NE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SUN THEN DIMINISH AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS. MEANWHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS SUNDAY...REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO SUN NIGHT...AND W CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF BY EARLY MONDAY. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE LIKELEYHOOD OF ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDS TO GALE FORCE OFF VERACRUZ MONDAY MORNING. THE LATEST GFS HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THIS AND IS SHOWING 10 METER WINDS TO 30 KT...JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. WHILE THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE...THE SREF IS STILL INDICATING A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE LOCATION AND PATTERN...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RETAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES FOR NOW. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING ONGOING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS OFF NE COLOMBIA...WITH A LARGER AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE COVERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE COMBINATION OF THE TRADE WIND COVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE NORTH IS RESULTING IN PERSISTENT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN HONDURAS TO WESTERN CUBA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH EASTERLY SWELL TO 9 FT REACHING INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE FARTHER EAST...LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL REACHING THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W WILL SPREAD WEST INTO THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH SUN NIGHT...SUBSIDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH LATE MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 31N68W TO A STATIONARY FRONT AT29N73W TO 27N79W TO BISCAYNE BAY FLORIDA. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ALONG THE FRONT W OF 77W. AN EARLY ASCAT PASS INDICATED STRONG N TO NE WINDS N OF BAHAMAS TO 29N...AND STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY IN A FETCH EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY BERMUDA TO WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEAS REACHING AS HIGH AS 13 FT NORTH OF GRAND BAHAMA AND EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL BY TONIGHT. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNDS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO SOME EXTENT HAVE BEEN SHOWING WEAK SHORT LIVED LOW PRES AREAS ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THESE TRANSITORY FEATURES WERE NOT SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE OVERALL WINDS OR SEAS...BUT THE 00Z GFS IS NOW SHOWING 10 METER WINDS TO GALE FORCE BY THIS EVENING NEAR A WEAK 1017 LOW PRES AREA CENTERED AT 28N74W NE OF THE BAHAMAS. THE SREF GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME INDICATION OF WINDS TO GALE FORCE AS WELL NEAR THIS AREA...BUT WITH LOW PROBABILITIES...AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO SHOW NOTHING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST BELOW GALE IN THIS AREA ALTHOUGH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AROUND ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS TO 11 FT LINGERING INTO MONDAY...EVENTUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT EARLY TUESDAY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.