000 AGXX40 KNHC 031956 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 256 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/PREVIOUS ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO 22N92W TO 18N93.5W. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE REACHED GALE FORCE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE PER 1538 AND 1622 UTC ASCAT PASSES WITH MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 40 KT. BUOY 42055 HAS REPORTED STEADY 30 KT WINDS WITH SEAS PEAKING AT 16 FT AT 17Z. ALL IN ALL A GOOD VERIFICATION OF THE FORECAST CONDITIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EXTEND NAPLES FLORIDA TO 22N90W TO 18N93W THIS EVENING...THEN STALL FROM FAR SW FLORIDA TO THE EXTREME SE BAY OF CAMPECHE/YUCATAN PENINSULA ON FRI THEN BECOME DIFFUSE BY SUN FROM EXTREME S FLORIDA TO 23N90W TO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUN. NNE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT DROP BELOW GALE FORCE OVER GMZ023 TONIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS REMAINING N OF THE FRONT AND E OF 92W FRI INTO EARLY SUN AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N MAINTAINS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH A SECOND AREA OF STRONG WINDS WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 24N. LOOKING AHEAD...THE WEAKENING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH SLIGHTLY FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF LATE SUN AND MON...JUST AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE NW SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL REACH FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE MON AND CLEAR THE GULF ON TUE. AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL BRING A NEW ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE VERACRUZ COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON. WHILE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN...THE GFS IS BY FAR NOW THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF GALE WARNINGS WHILE THE UKMET PORTRAYS WINDS OF ONLY 25 KT OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND...HOWEVER ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING AND INTENSITY WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL/FORECAST CYCLES. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/PREVIOUS ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER HAITI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION NOTED ON ITS SOUTHEAST SIDE OVER HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER LOW HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME ELONGATED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EVIDENT OVER THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A TROUGH DOES CONTINUE OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS REACHING AS HIGH AS 11-12 FT BETWEEN THE CENTRAL COAST OF COLOMBIA AND JAMAICA SUN AND MON. THE MAIN INFLUENCE IS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE ATLC COAST OF FLORIDA. HOWEVER STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD SIMULTANEOUSLY...MAINTAINING THE STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL TO SW PORTIONS OF THE BASIN THROUGH MON NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE ON TUE AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC REPLACES THE RIDGE N OF THE AREA. FARTHER EAST...LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL REACHING THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W WILL SPREAD WEST INTO THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH SUN NIGHT...SUBSIDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH LATE MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 26N-27N TO 72W IS SHIFTING EAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH NOW EXTENDS FROM 31N73W TO NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA. FRESH NNW WINDS HAVE FOLLOWED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AT 20 KT OR SO PER 1448 AND 1534 UTC ASCAT PASSES. THE FRONT IS SLATED TO SLIP SOUTH AND EXTEND FROM 31N70W TO PALM BEACH FLORIDA THIS EVENING...THEN STALL FROM 30N65W TO FORT LAUDERDALE LATE FRI...AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO LATE SAT AND SUN. IN THE INTERIM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE FRONT AND INCREASES THE GRADIENT N OF THE FRONT ALLOWING VEERING N TO NE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT...LOCALLY 30 KT FRI AND TO 25-30 KT OVER A BROAD AREA N OF THE FRONT SAT AND SUN WITH SEAS BUILDING 10-12 FT. SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE GULF STREAM IN STRONG COUNTER-CURRENT FLOW. GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT REGARDING STRENGTH OF WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ALL MODELS CAPPING THE WINDS AT 30 KT. THE GFS 30-METER WINDS ARE ALSO BELOW GALE FORCE AS WELL...AND ONCE AGAIN GFS ENSEMBLE OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW NO PROBABILITIES FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN FOR MON AS EACH GLOBAL MODEL HAS A UNIQUE SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST ALONG THE FRONTAL REMNANT. THE GFS/NAVGEM HUG THE COAST OF FLORIDA WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS LOW PRES FURTHER E. DESPITE DIFFERENCES...ALL MODELS DECREASE WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER COBB. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.