000 AGXX40 KNHC 030801 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 301 AM EST THU DEC 3 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR CRYSTAL RIVER FLORIDA TO 23N94W TO 18.5N96W WILL REACH FROM NAPLES FLORIDA TO 20.5N94W TO 18N94W BY LATE TODAY...THEN STALL FROM FAR SW FLORIDA TO 20.5N94W TO 18N94W FRI THEN BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM WEST TO EAST. STRONG WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT TODAY...REACHING GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 03 UTC INDICATED WINDS ARE JUST REACHING GALE FORCE OFF VERACRUZ. OBSERVATIONS FROM ISLA DE SACRIFICIOS OFF THE PORT OF VERACRUZ INDICATED SUSTAINED WINDS TO 30 KT SO FAR BUT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. AS DENSER AIR FUNNELS DOWN THE COAST BEHIND THE FRONT...THE EXTENT OF WINDS TO GALE FORCE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM VERACRUZ TO COATCACOALCOS BY AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM WINDS TO 40 KT AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 16 FT. ELSEWHERE STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT...ALTHOUGH 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WILL LINGER OFF VERACRUZ THROUGH SAT. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL ALLOW STRONG WINDS TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN GULF FRI THROUGH SUN...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF IN SHORT PERIOD NE SWELL. LOOKING AHEAD...THE WEAKENING FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH SLIGHTLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF SUN AND MON...JUST AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE NW GULF SUN. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL REACH FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF BY LATE MON. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL BRING A NEW ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE VERACRUZ COAST MON. WHILE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN...THE GFS REMAINS TYPICALLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF GALES WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET LESS SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS ON THIS ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING AND INTENSITY WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER HAITI THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK CONVECTION NOTED ON ITS SOUTHEAST SIDE OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND LOW TOPPED BUT TRAINING SHOWERS MOVING NORTH INTO HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER LOW IS WEAKER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...AND NO SIGNIFICANT ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS EVIDENT OVER THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A TROUGH DOES CONTINUE OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN HOWEVER AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM EASTERN HONDURAS TO WESTERN CUBA. STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS REACHING AS HIGH AS 13 FT BETWEEN THE CENTRAL COAST OF COLOMBIA AND JAMAICA LATER TODAY. THE MAIN INFLUENCE IS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE ATLC COAST OF FLORIDA. HOWEVER STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD SIMULTANEOUSLY...MAINTAINING THE STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL TO SW PORTIONS OF THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FARTHER EAST...LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W TONIGHT...AND SPREAD WEST INTO THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH SUN NIGHT...SUBSIDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH LATE MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 27N-28N N IS SHIFTING EAST-SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST CURRENTLY. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N72W TO PALM BEACH FLORIDA LATE TODAY...FROM 31N65W TO MIAMI LATE FRI...THEN STALL ALONG 26N-27N SAT AND SUN. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG 25-30 KT NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 11-13 FT NW OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND. GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING STRENGTH OF WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINING BELOW GALE WARNING FORCE...ALTHOUGH GFS 30 METER WINDS INDICATE MINIMAL GALE LATE SAT NE OF THE BAHAMAS. BUT GFS ENSEMBLE OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW NO PROBABILITIES FOR GALES...WHILE SREF OUTPUT REMAINS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR LATE SAT NE OF ABACO BAHAMAS. WINDS DIMINISH MON WITH LINGERING SEAS N OF THE BAHAMAS TO 11 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.