000 AGXX40 KNHC 021807 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 107 PM EST WED DEC 2 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO S OF TAMPICO MEXICO IS PUSHING SE AS REINFORCING COLD REACHES THE NW GULF. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO VERACRUZ MEXICO THIS EVENING...FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THU AFTERNOON...THEN STALL FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FRI THROUGH SUN. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE W OF THE FRONT ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT. THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER THESE WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE NEAR TAMPICO TONIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATED THIS A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO BUT HAVE SINCE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY. SREF PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW. WINDS TO GALE FORCE OFF VERACRUZ IS MORE LIKELY THU AND THU NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY FRI. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH IN THE WESTERN GULF SAT...BUT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS 8 TO 11 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF AS HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS OPENED UP AND IS NOW SITUATED OVER THE WINDWARD CHANNEL AS AN UPPER TROUGH. SHOWER ACTIVITY NEARBY CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN BOTH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ASCAT PASS AT 1420 UTC TODAY SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AN ALTIMETER PASS AT 1100 UTC AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAX SEAS TO 10 FT. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LOSE ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT NEARS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND STALL OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS WEEKEND. FURTHER EAST... LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W TONIGHT...AND SPREAD WEST INTO THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 31N WILL SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST AHEAD TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N72W TO PALM BEACH FLORIDA LATE THU...FROM 31N65W TO MIAMI LATE FRI...THEN STALL ALONG 25N-26N SAT AND SUN. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG 25-30 KT NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 11-13 FT NW OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND. GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING STRENGTH OF WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINING BELOW GALE FORCE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.