000 AGXX40 KNHC 020801 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 301 AM EST WED DEC 2 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT PERSIST FROM SE LOUISIANA TO 26N69W TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. REINFORCING COLDER AIR MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS WILL PUSH INTO THE NW GULF THIS MORNING ALLOWING THE FRONT TO START TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH EARLY FRI...EVENTUALLY STALLING FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE FRI. THE COLD AIR WILL FUNNEL ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST OVER RELATIVELY WARMER WATER...MIXING STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER THESE WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST NEAR TAMPICO TONIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATED THIS A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO BUT HAVE SINCE BACKED OFF ON WINDS TO GALE STRENGTH. THE SREF WAS SHOWING PROBABILITIES TO 30 PERCENT BY LATE WED/EARLY THU...BUT THIS HAS DECREASED AS WELL IN THE 02/03Z RUN. GIVEN THE PUSH OF COLD AIR EXPECTED DOWN THE MEXICAN COAST...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL HOLD ON TO THE GALE WARNING ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. WINDS TO GALE FORCE OFF VERACRUZ IS MORE LIKELY THU AND THU NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY FRI. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH OVER THE WESTERN GULF SAT WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS 8 TO 11 FT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF AS HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN GLOBAL OUTPUT LATE FRI THROUGH SUN AS THE ECMWF SPINS UP A LOW ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY OFF NW CUBA BY EARLY SAT AND SHOWS IT DRIFTING WEST INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SUN. OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS/UKMET GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS STARTING TO OPEN UP AND IS NOW SITUATED OVER NW HAITI AS PART OF AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH REACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO NEAR PROVIDENCE ISLAND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ACTIVE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND EASTERN HONDURAS AS A RESULT. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH CONCURRENT ALTIMETER DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SEAS TO 10 FT. STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND SEAS 8 TO 11 FT OVER MUCH OF THE S CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUNDAY. A FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND THU WILL STALL ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FRI INTO SUN. FARTHER EAST...EASTERLY SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FT WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W EARLY THU THROUGH LATE SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ALONG ROUGHLY 31N WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA THIS EVENING. REACHING FROM 31N72W TO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THU...THEN FROM FROM 31N65W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS FRI THROUGH SAT. STRONG NE WINDS TO 25-30 KT...AND BUILDING SEAS TO 11-12 FT ARE EXPECTED NW OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING STRENGTH OF WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINING BELOW GALE WARNING FORCE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.