000 AGXX40 KNHC 010800 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CAMERON LOUISIANA TO LOW PRES 1014 MB TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL BE OVERTAKEN LATER TODAY BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS. THE MERGED FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO THIS EVENING...FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO VERACRUZ BY LATE WED...AND THEN SLOW FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE FAR SW GULF BY LATE THU. STRONG WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE COLDER DRIER AIR MOVES OVER RELATIVELY WARMER GULF WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE WARNING FORCE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE COASTS OF SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS AND OFF VERACRUZ...STARTING ALONG TAMAULIPAS WED NIGHT...THEN SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THU. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS IN EARLIER RUNS SHOWING GALES OFF TAMAULIPAS...BUT SREF ENSEMBLE OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR GALES. GIVEN THE CONTRAST IN AIRMASSES THIS IS PLAUSIBLE AND GALE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. THE LATEST TAFB- NWPS FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS ARE UP TO 18 FT BASED ON FORECAST WINDS UP TO 40 KT. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. STRONG NE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH SAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE GFS IN THE FAR SW GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH STRONGER WINDS AND SEAS TO 12-14 FT PERSISTING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SHARP TROUGH PERSISTS BETWEEN HAITI AND NE COLOMBIA...TIED TO A STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER JAMAICA. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS BEEN TRACKING WESTWARD FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. A PAIR OF WEAKER TROUGHS ARE DISCERNIBLE IS VARIOUS SCATTEROMETER PASSES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL...SOUTH OF WEAK HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED N OF 15N TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH...AND UNDER STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND RE-ORIENT ITSELF FROM HISPANIOLA TO COSTA RICA THROUGH MID WEEK...ALLOWING THE SURFACE TROUGHS TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD W SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF STRONGER TRADE WINDS TO SLIGHTLY W TO OFF NW VENEZUELA AND NE COLOMBIA. SEAS WILL PULSE 8 TO 10 FT IN THE MAIN PLUMES OF STRONGER TRADES THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STALL LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS/CAICOS ISLANDS DUE DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW PARKED OVER JAMAICA...AND AN ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH SITUATED FROM 29N69W TO HAITI. MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SEAS 5 TO 7 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH IS LIFTING NE LATE TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING SE THROUGH BERMUDA. WEAK RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED N OF THE AREA TODAY INTO WED ALLOWING MODERATE E TO SE WINDS TO PERSIST. WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHERLY OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA LATE TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE WED. THAT FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N73W TO CAPE CANAVERAL THU THEN FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU EVENING WHERE IT WILL STALL THROUGH SAT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS BY LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW NE WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE...SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE UKMET...BUT LOWER THAN EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SUBSEQUENT RUNS...AND GALE WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY OVER THE WATERS N OF THE FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WATCH WED NIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WATCH THU INTO FRI. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.