000 AGXX40 KNHC 301813 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 113 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES FROM NEAR LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. OFFSHORE PLATFORMS ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING AREAS OF FOG AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITHIN 60-75 NM OF THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA ALONG AND W OF THE FRONT. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH IT HAS LINGERED LONGER THAN INITIALLY WAS ANTICIPATED. MEANWHILE THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN IN PLACE THROUGH LATE TODAY...JUST AHEAD OF A REINFORCING FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ENTERING THE FAR NW GULF BY LATE TUE. COLDER AIR ALONG WITH STRONGER WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST...REACHING A POSITION FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE SW GULF NEAR 20N97W. WINDS WILL POSSIBLY REACH GALE WARNING FORCE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE COASTS OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ...STARTING ALONG TAMAULIPAS WED NIGHT... THEN SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THU. THE LATEST TAFB- NWPS FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS ARE UP TO 20 FT BASED ON FORECAST WINDS UP TO 40 KT. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. STRONG NE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH SAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE GFS IN THE FAR SW GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH STRONGER WINDS AND SEAS TO 12-14 FT PERSISTING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS PERSIST IN THE BASIN W OF 72W...ONE EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N78W...AND THE OTHER IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO NE OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N83W. THESE SURFACE FEATURES ARE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW CENTERED BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PERSISTING OVER MAINLY THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE CENTRAL SURFACE TROUGH AND HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND RE-ORIENT ITSELF FROM HISPANIOLA TO COSTA RICA THROUGH MID WEEK...ALLOWING THE SURFACE TROUGHS TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD W SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF STRONGER TRADE WINDS TO SLIGHTLY W TO OFF NW VENEZUELA AND NE COLOMBIA. SEAS WILL PULSE 8 TO 10 FT IN THE MAIN PLUMES OF STRONGER TRADES THROUGH MID WEEK. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W...A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 60W CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD...THE STRONGER TRADES WILL BE SITUATED OVER THEIR NORMAL LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE ABC ISLANDS AND 75W IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN E SWELL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STALL LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODERATE WINDS DOMINATE THE BASIN WITH A PESKY SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR 28N65W TO THE N COAST OF HAITI WITH WEAK AND BROAD RIDGING OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN. SEAS NEAR THE TROUGH HAVE SUBSIDED TO LESS THAN 8 FT HOWEVER RECENT ALTIMETER AND BUOY DATA STILL SHOW 5-7 FT HEIGHTS JUST TO THE W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SE SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW SITUATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND E OF THE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS...AS WELL AS ACROSS HAITI AND SE CUBA. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NE LATE TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING SE THROUGH BERMUDA. WEAK RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED N OF THE AREA TUE INTO WED ALLOWING MODERATE E TO SE WINDS TO PERSIST. WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHERLY OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA LATE TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE WED. THAT FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N73W TO CAPE CANAVERAL THU THEN FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU EVENING WHERE IT WILL STALL THROUGH FRI. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS BY LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT. THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES ALONG THE STALLED FRONT SHOWING SPLOTCHY AREAS OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS WHILE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS MORE REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU INTO FRI. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.