000 AGXX40 KNHC 300758 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 258 AM EST MON NOV 30 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES FROM NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER TO TAMPICO MEXICO. OFFSHORE PLATFORMS ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING AREAS OF FOG AND VISIBILITY TO 2 TO 3 FT WITHIN 60-75 NM OF THE COAST OF TEXAS JUST ALONG THE FRONT. THE FOG WILL LIFT LATER THIS MORNING AND THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN IN PLACE THROUGH LATE TODAY...JUST AHEAD OF A REINFORCING FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ENTERING THE FAR NW GULF BY LATE TUE. COLDER AIR ALONG WITH STRONGER WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST...REACHING A POSITION FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE SW GULF NEAR 20N97W. WINDS WILL POSSIBLY REACH GALE FORCE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ THU AND PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH SEAS TO 16 FT. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY LATE FRI. STRONG NE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH LATE FRI. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE GFS IN THE FAR SW GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH STRONGER WINDS AND SEAS TO 13 FT PERSISTING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA TO NE COLOMBIA...WHILE THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0230 UTC INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PERSISTING OVER MAINLY THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND RE- ORIENT ITSELF FROM HISPANIOLA TO COSTA RICA THROUGH MID WEEK...ALLOWING THE SURFACE TROUGH TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT W. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD W SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF STRONGER TRADE WINDS TO SLIGHTLY W TO OFF NW VENEZUELA AND NE COLOMBIA. SEAS WILL PULSE 8 TO 10 FT IN THE MAIN PLUMES OF STRONGER TRADES THROUGH MID WEEK. FARTHER EAST A TROUGH ALONG 58W CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD...THE STRONGER TRADES WILL BE SITUATED OVER THEIR NORMAL LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE ABC ISLANDS AND 75W IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN E SWELL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STALL LATE IN THE WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH NE WINDS PERSIST FROM THE NW BAHAMAS TO THE N CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN 1023 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO HAITI. SEAS OF 8-9 FT CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED AT BUOY 41047 NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SE SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW SITUATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND E OF THE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND TCI. RECENT ALTIMETER DATA INDICATES SEAS 6 TO 8 FT NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS IS RESIDUAL NE SWELL FROM EARLIER STRONG WINDS AND WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NE BY LATE TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING SE THROUGH BERMUDA. WEAK RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED N OF THE AREA TUE INTO WED ALLOWING MODERATE E TO SE WINDS TO PERSIST. WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHERLY OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA LATE TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST ON WED. THAT FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N73W TO CAPE CANAVERAL THU WHERE IT WILL STALL BY THU NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FRONT REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE FRI...WITH STRONG NE WINDS N OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WATCH THU INTO THU NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.