000 AGXX40 KNHC 291813 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 113 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES FROM NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER TO NE MEXICO NEAR 23.5N98W. OFFSHORE PLATFORMS ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING AREAS OF HAZE WITHIN 60-75 NM OF THE COAST OF TEXAS IN MODERATE N WINDS...WHILE BUOYS IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS LAND BASED STATIONS SHOW FOG W OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE 1023 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRES MIGRATING FROM THE MID- MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FRESH NE TO E WINDS OVER THE FAR SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. BY MID WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A REINFORCED FRONT STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF BY LATE TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO JUST SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE BY WED MORNING WITH COLD AIR STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE FAR NW GULF WITH ASSOCIATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO VERACRUZ BY EARLY THU. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING STRONG TO GALE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BY THU AFTERNOON. GIVEN HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE...IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE THESE GALE WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE ALONG VERACRUZ. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SE AND REACH FROM S FLORIDA TO THE FAR SW GULF BY THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. THE LATEST TAFB-NWPS RUN SHOWS SEAS REACHING AS HIGH AS 16 FT OFF VERACRUZ BY THU NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM BERMUDA THROUGH HAITI TO THE N CENTRAL COAST OF COLOMBIA...WHILE THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA. ASSOCIATED UPPER DIVERGENCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE N CENTRAL AND NE CARIBBEAN...WITH STRONGER CONVECTION NOTED OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IS AN ADDED FEATURE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER MAINLY THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND RE-ORIENT ITSELF FROM HISPANIOLA TO COSTA RICA THROUGH MID WEEK...ALLOWING THE SURFACE TROUGH TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT W. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD W SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF STRONGER TRADE WINDS TO SLIGHTLY W TO OFF NW VENEZUELA AND NE COLOMBIA. SEAS WILL PULSE 8 TO 10 FT IN THE MAIN PLUMES OF STRONGER TRADES THROUGH MID WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD...THE STRONGER TRADES WILL BE SITUATED OVER THEIR NORMAL LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE ABC ISLANDS AND 75W IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN E SWELL. FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W...NE TO E SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 7-10 FT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE/LOW LATITUDE INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 55W WILL MIGRATE WESTWARD INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY MON. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS CONTINUED TO INDICATE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE. GLOBAL MODELS INITIALIZE WITH THIS...BUT SHOW THE WINDS WEAKENING TO 20 KT OR LESS BEFORE THE TROUGH REACHES THE ISLANDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH NE WINDS PERSIST FROM THE WESTERN BAHAMAS TO THE N CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN 1023 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO HAITI. SEAS OF 8-9 FT CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED AT BUOY 41047 NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SE SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW SITUATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND E OF THE TROUGH. THE FRESH NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AS THE HIGH PRES DISSIPATES. SEAS WILL MORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDE NE OF THE BAHAMAS DUE TO PERSISTENT NE SWELL CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NE BY LATE MON AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH BERMUDA MON...THEN STALLING AND WEAKENING E OF THE AREA. WEAK RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED N OF THE AREA TUE INTO WED ALLOWING MODERATE E TO SE WINDS TO PERSIST. WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHERLY OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA LATE TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST WED MORNING. THAT FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N73W TO CAPE CANAVERAL THU WHERE IT WILL STALL BY THU NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS A REINFORCING PUSH TAKING THE FRONT TO THE E FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY FRI AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING EASTWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.