000 AGXX40 KNHC 290759 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 259 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES FROM NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE SABINE RIVER TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF TAMAULIPAS IN NE MEXICO. OFFSHORE PLATFORMS ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING AREAS OF FOG WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF TEXAS IN MODERATE N WINDS. ELSEWHERE 1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER GEORGIA WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE TODAY AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRES MIGRATING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FRESH NE TO E WINDS OVER THE FAR SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. BY MID WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A REINFORCED FRONT STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF BY LATE TUE. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO JUST SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE BY WED MORNING WITH COLD AIR STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE FAR NW GULF WITH ASSOCIATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO VERACRUZ BY EARLY THU. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WINDS TO GALE FORCE OFF VERACRUZ BY THU WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. GIVEN HOW COLD THE AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY IT IS PLAUSIBLE TO HAVE GALES MIXING TO THE SURFACE ALONG VERACRUZ. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SE AND REACH FROM S FLORIDA TO THE FAR SW GULF BY THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. THE LATEST NWPS RUN SHOWED SEAS REACHING AS HIGH AS 20 FT OFF VERACRUZ BY LATE THU. THIS OUTPUT WAS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS WAVE HEIGHT GRIDS TO SHOW MAX VALUES AROUND 17 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM JUST WEST OF BERMUDA THROUGH HAITI TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA. ASSOCIATED UPPER DIVERGENCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NE CARIBBEAN...WITH STRONG CONVECTION NOTED OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IS AN ADDED FEATURE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER MAINLY THE SE AND S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND RE-ORIENT ITSELF FROM HISPANIOLA TO COSTA RICA THROUGH MID WEEK...ALLOWING THE SURFACE TROUGH TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD WEST AS WELL...SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF STRONGER TRADE WINDS TO SLIGHTLY WEST TO OFF WESTERN VENEZUELA AND NE COLOMBIA. SEAS WILL PULSE 8 TO 10 FT IN THE MAIN PLUMES OF STRONGER TRADES THROUGH MID WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD...THE STRONGER TRADES WILL BE SITUATED OVER THEIR NORMAL LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE ABC ISLANDS AND 75W IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN E SWELL. FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W...NE TO E SWELL WITH HEIGHTS TO 9 FT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE/LOW LATITUDE INVERTED TROUGH WILL MIGRATE WESTWARD INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY MON. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE. GLOBAL MODELS INITIALIZE WITH THIS...BUT SHOW THE WINDS WEAKENING TO 20 KT OR LESS BEFORE THE TROUGH REACHES THE ISLANDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS PERSIST INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BETWEEN 1023 MB HIGH PRES OVER GEORGIA AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO HISPANIOLA. SEAS TO 8 FT ARE REPORTED AT BUOY 41047 NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SE SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW SITUATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS E OF THE TROUGH. THE STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH PRES DISSIPATES. SEAS WILL MORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDE NE OF THE BAHAMAS WITH PERSISTENT NE SWELL CONTINUING INTO THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NE BY LATE MON AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH BERMUDA MON THEN STALLING AND WEAKENING E OF THE AREA. WEAK RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED N OF THE AREA TUE INTO WED ALLOWING MODERATE E TO SE WINDS TO PERSIST. WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHERLY OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA LATE TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST WED. THAT FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N73W TO CAPE CANAVERAL THU WHERE IT WILL STALL. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WATCH THU NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.