000 AGXX40 KNHC 271808 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 108 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF...ASSOCIATED WITH A 1036 MB HIGH PRES AREA CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA...WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. ALTIMETER AND BUOY DATA SHOW A LARGE AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES HIGHEST WINDS ARE E OF 90W. STRONG WINDS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...WHERE THE EASTERLY FLOW AGAINST THE FLORIDA CURRENT IS GENERATING SEAS TO 10-11 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS WELL. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM MICHIGAN TO TEXAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SE TEXAS...THEN STALL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL GET SOME REINFORCEMENT MON AS UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL...SAGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...REACHING FROM ALABAMA TO THE TEX/MEX BORDER BY LATE TUE. THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEAK... MAINTAINING MINIMAL WINDS AND SEAS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG RIDGE N OF THE AREA SUPPORTING FRESH NE WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE REGION TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE COLOMBIA THROUGH HISPANIOLA TO BERMUDA WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THIS WEEKEND. MODERATE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL RESULT IN FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE... LARGE N-NE NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CROSS THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES FROM HISPANIOLA TO LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH SEAS 6-7 FT THROUGH SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROUGH FROM BERMUDA TO HISPANIOLA WILL DRIFT W THROUGH THE WEEKEND...REACHING AROUND 65W THROUGH MON. SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY DATA INDICATE STRONG NE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS NE OF THE AREA AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS RELAXES. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGH BECOMING WELL ESTABLISHED AS DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS A RESULT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.