000 AGXX40 KNHC 271002 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 502 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. NWPS BLEND FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF...SOUTH OF A 1037 MB HIGH PRES AREA CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA. SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY DATA INDICATE 25 KT OVER MOST OF THE BASIN...AND NEAR GALE WARNING CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA...WHERE THE EASTERLY FLOW AGAINST THE FLORIDA CURRENT IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 12 OR 13 FT SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS AND OFF THE NW COAST OF CUBA. THE WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES GRADUALLY DISSIPATES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH TEXAS...REACHING THE NW GULF BY LATE SAT WHERE IT WILL TEMPORARILY STALL. THE FRONT WILL BE SLIGHTLY REINFORCED THROUGH MON AS THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE FRONT SAGS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...REACHING FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE BY LATE TUE. THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEAK...MAINTAINING MINIMAL WINDS AND SEAS. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT FRESH NE WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH TODAY...THEN DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS. A BROAD TROUGH WILL BECOME DOMINANT FROM GENERALLY THE COAST OF NE COLOMBIA THROUGH HISPANIOLA TO WEST OF BERMUDA BY LATE SAT. A MODERATELY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL RESULT IN FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN TO THE ABC ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE NORTHERLY SWELL WILL SEEP THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH SEAS 6 TO 7 FT THROUGH SAT. AS A BROAD TROUGH N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA DRIFTS W INTO THE BAHAMAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N62W TO HISPANIOLA WILL TRANSITION TO A TROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN SLOWLY DRIFT W TO AROUND 65W THROUGH MON. A SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 02 UTC INDICATED WINDS TO GALE FORCE FROM 29N TO 30N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THIS AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION THE SCATTEROMETER AND REGIONAL BUOY DATA INDICATED STRONG NE WINDS W OF FRONT...AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT WHEN PRESSURE GRADIENT NW OF TROUGH AXIS RELAXES AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS NE OF THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGH BECOMING WELL ESTABLISHED AS DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS REGION BETWEEN 65W-70W BY SAT. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS A RESULT THIS WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING REST OF TONIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.