000
AGXX40 KNHC 270801
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
301 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.
 
...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. NWPS BLEND FOR SEAS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF...SOUTH OF A 1037 MB HIGH PRES AREA CENTERED OVER
VIRGINIA. SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY DATA INDICATE 25 KT OVER MOST OF
THE BASIN...AND NEAR GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST GULF
AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA...WHERE THE EASTERLY FLOW AGAINST THE
FLORIDA CURRENT IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 12 OR 13 FT SOUTH OF THE
LOWER KEYS AND OFF THE NW COAST OF CUBA. THE WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISH THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES GRADUALLY DISSIPATES
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH TEXAS...REACHING THE NW GULF
BY LATE SAT WHERE IT WILL TEMPORARILY STALL. THE FRONT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY REINFORCED THROUGH MON AS THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. THE FRONT SAGS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...REACHING FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE BY LATE TUE. THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN WEAK...MAINTAINING MINIMAL WINDS AND SEAS. NO MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT FRESH NE WINDS IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN THROUGH TODAY...THEN DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE
HIGH PRES WEAKENS. A BROAD TROUGH WILL BECOME DOMINANT FROM
GENERALLY THE COAST OF NE COLOMBIA THROUGH HISPANIOLA TO WEST OF
BERMUDA BY LATE SAT. A MODERATELY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL RESULT IN FRESH
TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN TO THE
ABC ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE NORTHERLY SWELL
WILL SEEP THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS WITH SEAS 6 TO 7 FT THROUGH SAT.

AS A BROAD TROUGH N OF
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA DRIFTS W INTO THE BAHAMAS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N62W TO HISPANIOLA WILL TRANSITION
TO A TROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN SLOWLY DRIFT W TO AROUND 65W
THROUGH MON. STRONG TO NEAR GALE NE WINDS W OF FRONT IN FAR NE
WATERS DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT WHEN PRESSURE GRADIENT NW OF
TROUGH AXIS RELAXES AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS NE OF THE AREA. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGH BECOMING WELL ESTABLISHED AS DOMINANT
FEATURE ACROSS REGION BETWEEN 65W-70W BY SAT. MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL STEADILY IMPROVE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS A RESULT THIS
WEEKEND.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.