000 AGXX40 KNHC 240721 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 221 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS BLENDED USED FOR WAVES WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI IS BUILDING S BEHIND COLD FRONT AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUE THEN NE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WED AND THU. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND EASTERN GULF WED AND THU WITH FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD E OF 90W WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. A COLD FRONT INLAND OVER TEXAS FRI THROUGH SUN WILL INDUCE STRONGER SE RETURN FLOW IN THE NW GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS BLENDED USED FOR WAVES WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR OBSERVATIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WILL BECOME STATIONARY TODAY EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO N BELIZE TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SINK SOUTH FROM HAITI TO CENTRAL BELIZE WED NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING THU. HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA WILL STRENGTHEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLC...AND SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT WILL PULSE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH FRI MORNING. GFS GLOBAL MODEL INDICATES A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 32N65W FRI NIGHT ALONG THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO HISPANIOLA. THIS WILL DISRUPT THE RIDGE AND ALLOW WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO DIMINISH FRI AND SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS BLENDED USED FOR WAVES WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT FROM 31N65W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO CENTRAL CUBA WILL EXTEND FROM 25N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM 21N65W TO ACROSS HISPANIOLA WED NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A TROUGH AND WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE W THU THROUGH SAT. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MODERATE 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER W VA TUE NIGHT STRENGTHENING TO 1050 MB AS IT MOVES NE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE WED NIGHT OR EARLY THU. THIS LARGE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW NE WINDS TO INTENSIFY TO FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE WED MORNING THROUGH THU NIGHT N OF 29N W OF THE TROUGH TO NEAR 70W. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12 TO 16 FT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA W OF THE BAHAMAS WED THROUGH FRI. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. GFS GLOBAL MODEL INDICATES A LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 32N65W FRI NIGHT AND MOVE NE THROUGH SAT NIGHT...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR HISPANIOLA. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE THIS WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER PAW. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.