000 AGXX40 KNHC 221927 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 227 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. AT 1800 UTC...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE TAMPA BAY AREA FLORIDA TO JUST SOUTH OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. DURING THE MORNING HOURS... SACRIFIE ISLAND LOCATED NEAR 19N96W WAS REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS 0F 35-40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT WHILE VERACRUZ HARBOR REPORTED SIMILAR SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WITH GUST TO 49 KT. A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATES N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF MAINLY N OF 26N E OF 90W. NW TO N GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SW GULF THROUGH THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY S OF 21N W OF 95W WITH SEAS IN THE 10-15 FT RANGE. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA BY THIS EVENING...THEN SWEEP SE OF THE AREA BY MON MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND PERSIST THROUGH WED BEFORE SHIFTING NE LATER IN THE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E ON MON...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E BY TUE. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 10 FT ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WED AND THU AS A VERY STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF AREA. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE BUOY 42058 LOCATED NEAR 15N75W WAS REPORTING SEAS TO 8 FT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MON MORNING... EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO N BELIZE MON EVENING...AND FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS TUE WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 9-10 FT ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON MON. AN AREA OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND MAINLY N OF 19N WED AND THU DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A VERY STRONG HIGH PRES N OF AREA. LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH AT LEAST MON NIGHT. BUOY 41300 LOCATED NEAR 16N57W HAS REPORTED SEAS OF 7-9 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT HAS JUST ENTERED THE NW WATERS AND EXTENDS FROM 31N77W TO NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED SE TO S WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE N 27N E OF FRONT TO NEAR 70W. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FURTHER INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING REACHING GALE FORCE...ESPECIALLY N OF 29N W OF 72W/73W. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS S TO SW WINDS OF 30-40 KT DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND A 1035 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS AND EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO SE FLORIDA THIS EVENING...FROM 31N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA MON EVENING...AND FROM 27N65W TO EASTERN CUBA TUE EVENING WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 12-13 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND TO 9-10 FT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NORTHERLY SWELL. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN BEHIND THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. WED AND THU...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE N WATERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14-16 FT. THESE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY STRONG HIGH PRES MOVING OFF THE NE UNITED STATES LATE WED INTO THU. THE GFS GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS A 1042 MB HIGH PRES MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE N-CENTRAL ATLC OCEAN WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1050 MB BY THU MORNING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.