000 AGXX40 KNHC 211910 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE NW GULF AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT HAS JUST ENTERED THE FORECAST WATERS AT 1800 UTC. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT AFFECTING THE WATERS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO NOTED JUST W OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. WIND AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30-40 KT AND BUILDING SEAS TO 15-16 FT WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT BASED ON LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE. CURRENTLY...THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 90 PERCENT ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL AND THE SW GULF WHILE THE GEFS PROBABILITIES REACH 100 PERCENT ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF AND 80 PERCENT ACROSS THE SW GULF. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED ZONES BETWEEN THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO THIS EVENING...FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO EARLY SUN MORNING...AND FROM SE FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN EVENING BEFORE EXITING THE GULF LATE SUN NIGHT OR EARLY MON MORNING. BY EARLY MON MORNING...MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WILL SEE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 15N TO THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF THE COLOMBIA COAST N OF 11N. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE BASIN INDICATED SEAS IN THE 6-8 FT ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS... 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND 3-4 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY MON WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND WILL REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY MON MORNING... EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS MON AFTERNOON... AND FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS MON EVENING WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10 FT ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON MON. LONG PERIOD N TO NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY...THEN BECOME CONFINED S ACROSS THE WATERS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N73W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE A RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REGION. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE SEEN PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS NW OF THE FRONT. A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE TONIGHT...AND MERGE WITH THE STALLED FRONT ON SUN. THE MERGED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY SUN EVENING. STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY N OF 29N... SUN EVENING THROUGH LIKELY EARLY MON MORNING. A GALE WARNING WAS ISSUED WITH THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 13-14 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND TO 11-12 FT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NORTHERLY SWELL. THE FRONT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM 31N70W TO WESTERN CUBA EARLY MON MORNING...AND FROM 31N66W TO EASTERN CUBA MON EVENING. THEN... THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 28N65W TO EASTERN CUBA TUE AND TO THE FAR SE WATERS WED. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN BEHIND THE FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SUN. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING SUN NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.